Rams Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Rams win total sits at 9.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Los Angeles produced another 10-win season in 2024 that largely replicated the 2023 campaign. After starting 1-4, the Rams finished 9-3 over its last 12 to make the playoffs. 

The NFC West winners handed Minnesota a loss in the wild-card round before falling to the Eagles in the divisional round. 

Currently, the Rams rank among the short shots in the Super Bowl odds. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Los Angeles’ 2025 win total and my Rams win total prediction. 

Rams Win Total Odds

The Rams’ season win total is set at 9.5 games. 

Under head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have produced only one losing season (2022). As a result, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that over 9.5 wins is -150, an implied probability of 60%. 

Comparatively, under 9.5 wins is priced at +125 for an implied probability of 44.4%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all NFC West teams:

• San Francisco 49ers: 10.5 Wins
• Los Angeles Rams: 9.5 Wins
• Arizona Cardinals: 8.5 Wins
• Seattle Seahawks: 8.5 Wins

Rams Win Total Prediction 2025

Based on the Rams’ difficult defensive schedule and its negative regression metrics, I predict the Rams finish Under 9.5 Wins (+125). 

BET: Rams Over 9.5 Wins @ -150

BET: Rams Under 9.5 Wins @ +125  

The decision here is largely based on price. When it comes to the team profile, I can make arguments in both directions regarding Los Angeles. 

Assuming Matthew Stafford stays healthy, no reason exists why the Rams won’t rank as a top-10 offense. 

Stafford played at least 15 games three times in the last four seasons. The Rams never finished worse than 10th in offensive DVOA in those three campaigns, per ftnfantasy.com. 

While the offense lost Cooper Kupp this offseason, I rate Davante Adams as an upgrade for Stafford. 

Another argument exists in favor of the Rams performing even better on offense next season. Last season, the Rams offense lost 50.7 adjusted games to injury, the sixth-most in the NFL. 

In the previous season, the Rams lost only 15.5 adjusted games on offense and placed seventh in offensive DVOA. 

Where I worry about the Rams is on the defensive side of the ball. 

Poona Ford is a quality addition for the defensive line, but the Rams lost a number of defensive personnel in free agency. 

Last season, Los Angeles ranked 26th in defensive DVOA against the ninth-hardest set of opposing offenses. 

The task for this year’s unit increases in difficulty. Based on 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, the Rams face the seventh-hardest set of opposing offenses. 

If the defense maintains that rating or takes a step back, it puts added pressure on the offense. 

McVay’s team won nine games in its final 12, but so many of those proved close victories. 

Of those nine wins, seven came by seven or fewer points.  

If the Rams played an easier schedule in 2025, I could forgive that record. However, based on opponent win totals, the Rams face an above-average strength of schedule. 

For those reasons, I’m inclined to believe these prices should be closer together than the market has them. 

Add in that, as of May 1, 83% of all bets are backing the Rams over 9.5 wins, and it would be the under or nothing for me.

Most Wins in Rams History

The Rams’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14. They accomplished that feat in 2001 but lost to the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Rams History

The Rams’ franchise record for fewest wins in a single season is one, occurring on three occasions (1937, 1962, and 2009) and in three different cities (Cleveland, Los Angeles, and St. Louis).