Dolphins Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Dolphins win total sits at 8.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

Miami struggled in 2024 with a 2-6 start that coincided with an injury to Tua Tagovailoa. From there, Miami enjoyed six wins in its final nine games, but ultimately missed the postseason. 

Now in Mike McDaniel’s fourth season, the Dolphins see its win total drop one win year over year. Under McDaniel, Miami finished 2-1 to the over against its win totals. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for Miami’s 2025 win total and my Dolphins win total prediction. 

Dolphins Win Total Odds

The Dolphins season win total is set at 8.5 games. 

As it stands, oddsmakers rate the Dolphins more likely to win eight or fewer games. Miami under 8.5 wins is currently priced at -150 for an implied probability of 60%. 

Comparatively, the Dolphins over 8.5 wins is priced at +125 for an implied probability of 44.4%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC East teams:

• Buffalo Bills: 11.5 Wins
• Miami Dolphins: 8.5 Wins
• New England Patriots: 8.5 Wins
• New York Jets: 5.5 Wins

Dolphins Win Total Prediction 2025

Miami Dolphins Over 8.5 Wins (+125)

Based on the distribution of Miami’s opponents and its likely offensive improvement, I predict the Dolphins finish Over 8.5 Wins (+125). 

BET: Dolphins Over 8.5 Wins @ +130

BET: Dolphins Under 8.5 Wins @ -155  

Any success for Miami has to begin with keeping Tagovailoa healthy. Historically, that task has proven difficult. 

Tagovailoa completed a full season once. It should come as no surprise that season (2023) saw Miami reach the postseason while ranking second in offensive DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

That record continued last season in Tagovailoa’s starts. Miami averaged 25.5 points per game in contests where Tagovailoa completed at least 90% of snaps. 

In those 10 games, Miami finished 6-4. Otherwise, the Dolphins averaged 13.3 points per game with a 2-4 record. 

Next season, a resurgent offense is needed given the level of competition the defense faces. 

Miami ranked 19th in defensive DVOA last season against the fifth-easiest set of opposing offenses. 

Based on 2024 offensive DVOA ratings, the Dolphins are slated to play the 15th-hardest set of offenses. 

Returnees Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips should help that unit, but this remains one of the league’s cheapest defenses. 

From a scheduling standpoint, Miami faces an interesting schedule in terms of game distribution. 

Based on opponent win totals, the Dolphins face the ninth-easiest schedule. 

However, the caveat for this team is the more difficult games come at home. Of 10 games against teams with a win total of 8.5 or higher, seven are in Miami. 

Historically, the Dolphins have excelled at home with both Tagovailoa and McDaniel. 

In 41 regular-season games with that combo, the Dolphins posted a 17-5 record at home compared to an 8-11 record in road or neutral-site games. 

Worth noting: Miami closed a home favorite in 19 of those 22 home games and a road dog in 13 of those 18 road/neutral site games. 

Miami does own a 5-1 record as a road favorite and a 2-1 record as a home dog with that pair. 

If the Dolphins replicate that past success, the team could clear this win total. However, my confidence is low given the concerns surrounding Tagovailoa’s health.

Most Wins in Dolphins History

The Dolphins’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 14, which has happened twice. The first time was in 1972 when the Dolphins went 14-0.

In 1984, the Dolphins finished 14-2, eventually losing in the Super Bowl.

Fewest Wins in Dolphins History

The Dolphins’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. In 2007, the Dolphins finished 1-15.