Jets Over Under Wins, 2025 NFL Win Totals

For the 2025 NFL season, the Jets’ win total sits at 5.5 wins at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

New York entered last season with a bright outlook. Aaron Rodgers returned from injury, and the Jets closed with a win total set at 9.5. 

The campaign proved disastrous as Robert Saleh lost his job and the Jets finished with five wins. Now, Aaron Glenn arrives as the new head coach for a team projected last in the division. 

Here’s a look at the NFL odds for New York’s 2025 win total and my Jets win total prediction. 

Jets Win Total Odds

The Jets’ season win total is set at 5.5 games. 

The odds for New York to win at least six games is -150, an implied probability of 60%. 

Meanwhile, the odds for them to finish with five or fewer wins is +125, an implied probability of 44.4%. 

Here are the 2025 NFL win totals for all AFC East teams:

• Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Wins
• Miami Dolphins: 8.5 Wins
• New England Patriots: 8.5 Wins
• New York Jets: 5.5 Wins

Jets Win Total Prediction 2025

New York Jets Over 5.5 Wins (-150)

Based on historical precedent and the potential improvement of New York’s defense in 2025, I predict the Jets finish Over 5.5 Wins (-150). 

BET: Jets Over 5.5 Wins @ -155

BET: Jets Under 5.5 Wins @ +130

Two arguments work in favor of New York finishing with a higher number of wins in 2025. 

First, the Jets ran extremely unlucky in 2024. New York finished 5-12 with a 7-10 expected record, according to ftnfantasy.com. 

Driving that record: a 0-4 record in games decided by three or fewer points and a 2-7 record in contests decided by seven or fewer points. 

Historically, bad teams that ran very unlucky tend to see an increase in next year’s output. 

Since the NFL expanded its schedule to 17 games, seven teams have finished with seven or fewer wins, underperforming their expected win-loss record by at least 1.5 wins. 

All seven saw increases the following season. The average rate of increase: 4.1 wins. 

Even if you only sample the five teams with five or fewer wins that year, all five saw wins increase by at least three annually. 

Setting that argument aside, the upside on New York is that a majority of the strong defensive unit from 2022-2023 remains intact. 

In those seasons, New York finished sixth and third, respectively, in defensive DVOA. Last year, they finished 20th in that metric. 

While it came against a fairly easy set of opposing offenses, a potential explanation exists in New York’s injury issues on defense. 

Only five teams lost more adjusted games to injury on defense than the Jets, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Now, Glenn arrives having coordinated a Lions defense that experienced a similar fate. The difference? Glenn managed to keep that defense performing at a high level post-injuries. 

If Glenn restores the Jets to one of the league’s top defenses, the total feels far too low against a relatively easy schedule. 

While the Jets face four games against the AFC North, they also get the NFC South out of division. In terms of unique games, they face Denver, Jacksonville and Dallas. 

For those reasons, I like the over on the Jets’ season win total.

Most Wins in Jets History

The Jets’ franchise record for most regular season wins is 12. In 1998, the Jets posted a 12-4 record before losing in the AFC Championship to the Denver Broncos.

Fewest Wins in Jets History

The Jets’ franchise record for the fewest regular-season wins is one. In 1996, the Jets had their worst season, posting a 1-15 record.