- The Detroit Lions (+130) are preseason favorites to win the NFC North.
- Detroit earned the division title in 2023, their first division title since 1993.
- The case for the Lions to claim a second consecutive division title.
For the first time since 1993, the Detroit Lions captured a NFC North division title.
At 12-5, Detroit topped a division by three games over the Green Bay Packers. All four teams in the division finished the season with at least seven wins.
How does this division shake out in 2024? Here’s a look at the NFL betting lines for the NFC North division winner and my best bet.
NFC North Odds, 2024
- Detroit Lions: +130
- Green Bay Packers: +210
- Chicago Bears: +325
- Minnesota Vikings: +1000
NFC North Predictions, Division Winner
LEAN Detroit Lions (+130) to win the NFC North
There are two things that concern me enough to render the Lions NFC North odds too short.
First is that Detroit plays a first-place schedule after winning the division.
That leaves them with games against the Cowboys, Buccaneers and Bills, whereas their divisional foes face easier opponents.
Additionally, the Lions experienced some fortune last season in close games.
Detroit finished 2-1 in games decided by three or fewer points last season and 5-3 in games decided by seven or fewer points.
If they convert their two-point attempt against Dallas, they jump to 3-0 and 6-2 in those contests, respectively.
Despite their talent, it’s difficult to bet on a team that could face some negative regression based on their results from last season.
Additionally, all of the remaining division foes are positive regression candidates based on their record in one-score games.
Green Bay, Minnesota and Chicago finished 4-5, 4-8 and 2-5 in games decided by seven or fewer points last season.
Those three teams also combined to finish 7-9 in games decided by three or fewer points, with all three finishing at or below .500.
All of that said, I still maintain the belief that the Lions are the most complete team in the division.
Detroit finished seventh or better last season in pass offense DVOA, rush offense DVOA and rush defense DVOA, according to ftnfantasy.com.
Their biggest struggle was defending the pass, as they ranked 16th in that category during the regular season.
However, they’ve made nice offseason additions to address that concern, and I still rate their offense ahead of Green Bay’s.
Add in I don’t want to place faith in a first-year quarterback in Caleb Williams or a second-year quarterback in Jordan Love, and it’s Detroit or nothing for me in the NFC North.
NFC North Odds, Finishing Positions
| Team | Finish Top-2 | Finish 2nd | Finish 3rd | Finish 4th |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | -400 | +175 | +300 | +1100 |
| Green Bay Packers | -210 | +180 | +220 | +650 |
| Chicago Bears | -115 | +240 | +165 | +350 |
| Minnesota Vikings | +350 | +650 | +350 | -225 |
NFC North Live Odds, Division Winner
| Week Number | Favorite to Win | Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Preseason | Detroit Lions | +130 |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions | -145 |
| Week 3 | Detroit Lions | +105 |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions | +145 |
| Week 5 | Minnesota Vikings | +125 |
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