- My Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction in Super Bowl 59 focuses on the pregame over/under.
- I predict Chiefs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins finishes under his receiving yards prop.
- The matchup advantage Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown carries over the Chiefs.
Below, bettors can find a list of NFL playoff predictions for Super Bowl 59 based on NFL playoff odds.
For the second time in three years, the Chiefs and Eagles face off in the Big Game.
Kansas City is looking to become the first team ever to win three Super Bowls in a row while the Eagles are searching for their first Super Bowl win since 2017. These teams met last season with Kansas City falling 21-17 to Philadelphia.
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Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction
Based on the quality of both defenses and the matchup disadvantages for both offenses, my Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction is Under 49.5 Points (-110).
How this total is so high remains a complete mystery to me. Accordingly, it’s the perfect time to sell high on two high-scoring games from these sides.
But those games proved as high scoring due to the lack of defensive quality from both underdogs.
The Eagles, which ranked 13th in offensive DVOA during the regular season, exposed an injured Commanders defense that ranked 23rd in the corresponding defensive category.
The issue with Philadelphia’s offense? They’ve played the easiest set of opposing defenses this season.
Dating back to Week 6, Philadelphia played only three games against teams 14th or better in defensive DVOA.
Their outputs in those games: 24 against Baltimore, 27 against Pittsburgh and 22 against Green Bay.
Now they’ll face a Chiefs defense that performs better against the run. The Chiefs rank ninth in rush defense DVOA compared to 17th in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
At the same time, Philadelphia’s defense ranks first in defensive DVOA, having faced the 16th-hardest set of opposing offenses.
Dating back to Week 6, the Eagles faced seven offenses 10th or better in DVOA. Opponents averaged only 20.7 points in those seven contests.
Finally, Super Bowls featuring a high total rarely feature loads of points. Nine big games since 2003 have seen a total higher than 49 points, with seven staying under.
Plus, two Eagles games have closed with a total higher than 49 points this season: vs. Washington and Baltimore.
Both stayed under the total.
Pair those defensive trends with the extended rest for both teams and a lower-scoring game should be expected.
Based on Kansas City’s weak record against top defenses in the first half and the extended rest factor, my Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction is the Chiefs Under 13.5 1H Points (-125)
Philadelphia, in terms of first half metrics, is far and away the best defense in the NFL.
The Eagles lead the league in both first-half defensive EPA per play and defensive success rate, per rbsdm.com.
How have the Chiefs fared against similar competition?
They’ve played seven teams ranked 10th or better in one of those categories.
Against the top-10 in first-half EPA per play: 4-3 to the under against this number, with two successes against teams ranked ninth and 10th.
The only other success? At home against Houston, who played on short rest. That won’t be the case for Philadelphia.
How about the teams 10th or better in first-half defensive success rate?
Kansas City played seven games against such teams, with five overlapping games across samples.
The Chiefs finished 5-2 to the under against this number in those seven games. In addition to the aforementioned success against Houston, the other came against Cleveland (10th).
That creates a strong sell-high spot on the Chiefs following a 21-point first half against Buffalo. That said, bet this only if it remains at 13.5 points.
Super Bowl Prop Bets
DeAndre Hopkins Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
Based on Hopkins’ lack of snaps since Marquise Browns’s return and the Eagles’ strong pass defense, I predict Hopkins stays Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (-125).
Hopkins enjoyed a strong run of results from Week 9 through Week 16. In those eight games, he cleared this number every time.
But Hopkins’ decline coincided perfectly with the return of Brown. Over his last three games, he produced yardage totals of seven, zero and 11 yards.
Hopkins faced two teams eighth or better in pass defense DVOA in the postseason, including a Houston defense a spot ahead of Philadelphia in pass defense DVOA.
He’s also played only 28 offensive snaps in the playoffs after clearing that number alone in Week 17.
It’s also a nightmare spot for Hopkins against a strong Eagles secondary.
The Eagles deployed three players – Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay – on at least 50% of coverage snaps.
All three ranked 18th or better in the NFL in PFF’s coverage grades.
Plus, where the Eagles struggle through the air is against top wide receivers.
Philly ranks 24th in DVOA against such receivers compared to first, seventh and third, respectively, against WR2’s, WR3’s and tight ends.
Those records should see Hopkins continue to struggle. Back him to finish under this total for the fourth straight game.
A.J. Brown Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Based on Brown’s strong record against man coverage and his yardage outputs against the scheme this year, I predict Brown finishes Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115).
According to PFF, Brown leads the NFL in receiving grade against man coverage.
His 37.4% target share against the scheme ranks second in the NFL and tops the Eagles amongst players with at least 90 targets.
In Super Bowl 59, he’ll face a Chiefs defense that ranks seventh in man coverage percentage.
Kansas City also ranks 26th in DVOA against WR1’s and 17th in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
This season, Brown played three games against teams ranked 10th or higher in man coverage percentage: Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Jacksonville.
Brown cleared this number in two of those three contests, booming for at least 100 yards against the Steelers and Browns.
Irrespective of opponent scheme, Brown cleared this number in nine of 16 games this year. Two years ago in Super 57, Brown caught eight catches for 96 yards against the Chiefs.
As a result, grab the over on Brown’s receiving yards.
Jalen Hurts Longest Rush Over 12.5 Yards (-105)
Based on the Chiefs’ ability to pressure the quarterback and their struggles against mobile quarterbacks, I predict Hurts’ longest rush is Over 12.5 Yards (-105).
There’s a question about mobility for Hurts, who is 10-8 to the over against this number for the season.
But there should be an expectation of sustained pressure from Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
Entering Super Bowl 59, Kansas City ranks fifth in PFF’s pressure grades.
Hurts played six games against teams 10th or better in that category this season. He cleared this number four times in those six contests.
Plus, Hurts’ experience against the Chiefs should allow him to clear this number like he did two years ago.
Although his longest rush last year in Kansas City amounted to 10 yards, Hurts reeled off 15 carries for 70 yards with a long of 28 in Super Bowl 57.
The Chiefs also struggled to defend mobile quarterbacks this season.
Albeit in a limited sample, they allowed both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen to clear this number in all three of those contests.
Of even greater concern, though, is that Kansas City allowed long rushes to run-second quarterbacks. For example, C.J. Stroud notched longs of 12 and 28 yards in two games.
Based on those outputs, back Hurts to clear his longest rushing prop.
Patrick Mahomes Under 252.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Based on the Eagles’ strong defensive record against good offenses and Mahomes’ record against good defenses, I predict Mahomes will finish Under 252.5 Yards (-115).
Mahomes stayed under this number only nine times in 18 regular + postseason games. However, he’s running into arguably his strongest pass defense of the season.
Philadelphia ranks second in pass defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. They’ve accomplished that feat against teams averaging a pass offense DVOA rating of 15.25.
Vic Fangio’s defense simultaneously ranks second in dropback EPA per play and dropback success rate on plays, excluding turnovers.
This game marks only the third time this season Mahomes faces a defense fifth or better in all three of those categories.
In the previous two – both against Houston – Mahomes passed for 260 and 177 yards with the latter output coming in the divisional round.
Conversely, the Eagles played seven games against teams 10th or better in pass offense DVOA since Week 8. Five of those quarterbacks stayed under this number.
Given the Chiefs ranked 11th in that category, take the under on Mahomes’ passing yardage prop.
Neither Team to Score 30+ Points (+100)
Based on the sell-high spot for both offenses, particularly the Eagles, I predict Neither Team Scores 30 or More Points (+100).
Most bettors will remember the 38-35 explosion in Super Bowl 57. However, that game was ripe for points based on team profiles.
In 2022, Philadelphia owned a good defense that played easy offenses. Per ftnfantasy.com, the Eagles ranked third in defensive DVOA against the second-easiest set of offenses.
That spelled trouble against a Chiefs offense first in offensive DVOA.
At the same time, Philadelphia’s third-ranked DVOA offense faced a Chiefs ranked 14th in defensive DVOA against the fourth-easiest set of offenses.
The same can’t be said this year, largely because of Philadelphia’s metrics.
The Eagles rank 13th in offensive DVOA against the easiest set of defenses while leading the league in defensive DVOA against the 16th-hardest schedule of offenses.
Kansas City has scored 30 or more only three times. Against teams 10th or better in defensive DVOA, it becomes zero successes.
While the Eagles have scored 30 or more seven times, the level of defensive competition must be considered.
Six of those seven successes came against a team ranking 23rd or worse in defensive DVOA. The only exclusion? All the way back in Week 1 against Green Bay.
On Sunday, they’re encountering a Chiefs defense that allowed 30 or more only once outside Week 18.
As a result, grab the plus-money and back neither team to reach 30 points.
Dallas Goedert Longest Reception Over 19.5 Yards (-105)
Based on the Chiefs’ struggles against tight ends and Goedert’s emergence in the playoffs, I predict Goedert clears 19.5 Yards as his Longest Reception (-105).
Everyone and their mother knows the Chiefs can’t defend tight ends. But the fact Goedert Over Receiving Yards is the most bet player prop at BetMGM forces some creativity.
That leads me to his longest reception. This season, opposing tight ends have cleared this number 12 times in 18 games against the Chiefs outside of Week 18.
Of the six failures, two saw the opposing tight end’s longest reception land on either 18 or 19 yards.
One additional note worth considering: in those 12 successes, opposing tight ends have notched a long reception of 30 or more yards seven times.
Onto Goedert. The Eagles tight end has cleared this number in all three postseason games with longest receptions of 24, 31 and 26 yards.
Goedert failed to feature against the Chiefs last season, but he thrived in Super Bowl 57. In that game, he caught six catches for 60 yards with a longest reception of 17 yards.
That Chiefs defense ranked 18th in yards allowed against tight ends. This season, Kansas City sits 31st in that category.
As a result, take Goedert to clear his longest reception for the fourth straight contest.
