NFL Playoff Predictions: Best Bets for Wild Card Round

Below, bettors can find a list of NFL playoff predictions for the wild-card round based on NFL playoff odds. 

The slate gets underway on Saturday with Texans vs. Chargers and Ravens vs. Steelers. 

The AFC closes out Sunday afternoon with Bills vs. Broncos before Eagles vs. Packers and Buccaneers vs. Commanders. 

Finally, Rams vs. Vikings closes out the wild-card window on Monday Night Football in Los Angeles. 

NFL Playoff Picks

NFL Playoff Predictions

Bills vs. Broncos Prediction

Based on the recent success of big playoff favorites and the Bills’ outstanding home record, my Bills vs. Broncos prediction is the Bills Spread (-9, -110). 

Give Denver their flowers for reaching the playoffs in Nix’s first season. However, he faces a steep climb to win outright and cover the spread. 

Nix recorded a 7-0 ATS record as a market favorite this year. Comparatively, he’s 4-5 ATS as a market underdog.

Only once this season has Denver closed north of +8 against the spread. That came in Week 9 against Baltimore, who handed the Broncos a 41-10 loss. 

There’s an argument to be made that the Buffalo offense lacks the same potency as Baltimore. 

Although they’re separated by only a spot in offensive DVOA, Baltimore’s rating comes in 12.3% higher, according to ftnfantasy.com. 

But the Bills have shown an ability to blow teams out at home. This season, they’ve covered or pushed this number in five of eight home games. 

It’s also an outstanding sell-high spot on a Broncos defense that has largely faced easy competition this year. 

Although Denver ranks fourth in defensive DVOA, that record comes against the 24th-hardest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

That game against Baltimore is the only occasion this season where Denver has played a top-five offense by DVOA. 

Lastly, big home favorites have historically performed well in the playoffs. 

Since 2020, home favorites between -11.5 and -8 are 6-2 ATS, including 4-0 ATS in the wild card round. 

As a result, lay the points with the Bills. 

Texans vs. Chargers Prediction

[Writer’s Note: I bet this at 44.5 points late on Sunday night. It remains a bet at 42.5 points, but if this falls below 42 it becomes a pass]. 

Based on the strength of both defenses and the sell-high spot on Los Angeles, my Texans vs. Chargers prediction is Under 44.5 Points (-110). 

Los Angeles recorded a third straight 30-point game in Week 18. However, the wild card round marks a major upgrade in defensive competition. 

Houston ranks second in defensive DVOA, having faced the 12th-hardest set of opposing offenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

The Chargers also run into a DeMeco Ryans-led squad that features a propensity for playing games that finish under the total. 

Since last year, Ryans is 22-13-1 to the under in the regular and postseason. 

But here’s the kicker: When the total closes north of 42 points, Ryans is 20-5-1 to the under, including 12-1 at home. 

Bettors should also question how the Texans offense scores points against a strong Chargers defense. 

Houston ranks 25th in offensive DVOA, having faced the fifth-easiest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Meanwhile, the Chargers rank 11th in defensive DVOA, albeit against the sixth-easiest set of opposing offenses. 

While potential regression exists down the road on the Chargers defense, this week doesn’t rate out as such against a bad Texans offense. 

As a result, take the under in Houston. 

Rams vs. Vikings Prediction

Based on the Rams’ outstanding offensive results against good defenses and the record of playoff newcomers, my Rams vs. Vikings is the Rams Moneyline (+100). 

Although the Rams benefitted from a Minnesota short rest spot in their meeting earlier this season, this shapes up as another nightmare spot for the Vikings. 

The Vikings played a full complement of starters against the Lions, whereas the Rams rested their four key still players. 

Historically, teams tend to struggle immediately after facing the Lions. 

Since last season, teams are 7-17 ATS in games 2-20 immediately after playing Detroit. 

But the crux of this bet is backing a tested Rams offense. This season, Los Angeles ranks 10th in offensive DVOA, having faced the third-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com. 

That should set them up for success against Minnesota, which has struggled against the league’s best offenses this year. 

Minnesota is 3-3 SU against teams 10th or better in offensive DVOA, including 1-2 away from home. Otherwise, they’re 11-0 SU. 

History also suggests the Vikings are primed to fall on Monday in Los Angeles. 

Since 2003, wild-card favorites that missed the playoffs the previous year are 12-29 ATS. 

Even when those teams fall between -2.5 and -1, they’re 2-12 ATS, including 1-5 ATS away from home. 

There’s also a historical angle to backing the Rams. 

Since 2020, wild-card underdogs between +1 and +8.5 are 10-2 ATS, assuming their previous game margin falls between -6 and +37. 

When those dogs fall between +1 and +3: 6-0 ATS. 

As a result, grab the Rams to advance over the Vikings on Monday.