Saints vs Chiefs Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 5

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(AP Photo/John Locher)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2024, 11:51 AM

The Chiefs are -5.5 point favorites vs the Saints
Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
Watch this game on ESPN

The New Orleans Saints (2-2-0) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0-0) on Oct. 7. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Saints vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.

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Saints vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Saints	+5.5 -110	43.5 -110	+200
Chiefs	-5.5 -110	43.5 -110	-250

Saints vs. Chiefs Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 61.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Saints vs Chiefs Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Saints will cover the spread with 52.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Saints players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Saints Player Prop Bets Today

Derek Carr has hit the TD Passes Over in 10 of his last 17 games (+6.10 Units / 35% ROI)
Alvin Kamara has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.60 Units / 31% ROI)
Alvin Kamara has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Cedrick Wilson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 52% ROI)
Alvin Kamara has hit the Carries Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.05 Units / 27% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today

Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 60% ROI)
Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 26% ROI)
Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.90 Units / 27% ROI)
Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+5.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Marquise Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 53% ROI)

Saints Best Bets:

The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+10.15 Units / 47% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 41% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 47% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have covered the 2H Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 59% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 19 games (+14.75 Units / 66% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.50 Units / 20% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.25 Units / 17% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.85 Units / 29% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.70 Units / 29% ROI)

Saints Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Saints art 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 44.19% ROI).

Saints are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.9 Units / 16.98% ROI
Saints are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Saints are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / ROI

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 21.18% ROI).

Chiefs are 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 43.96% ROI
Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Chiefs are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

New Orleans Saints: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Saints are 7-1 (.875) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Chiefs have intercepted 9 passes since the 2023 season — 3rd-fewest in NFL.

The Saints were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Saints were 2-5 (.286) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — T-4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Saints are 1-5 (.167) when committing 2 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .295.

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the New Orleans Saints

The Chiefs are 10-4 (.714) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .277.

The Chiefs are undefeated (4-0) this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Chiefs are 13-3 (.812) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Saints have averaged just 2.2 sacks per game over that time span — T-5th-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs were 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .276.

Additional Matchup Notes for New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have averaged 0.37 epa per play against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Saints have allowed 0.21 epa per play with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs ran just 5.5% offensive plays in the red zone last week — 4th-worst in NFL. The Saints allowed their opponent to run just 0.0% of plays in the red zone last week — best in NFL.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 71.0% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL. The Saints have allowed successful plays on 57.1% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Saints have scored on 77.8% of their drives in the first quarter this season — best in NFL. The Chiefs defense has allowed scores on 50% of opponent drives in the first quarter this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Saints have gone three and out on 10% of their drives in the second half this season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have forced three and outs on 12.5% of opponent drives in the second half this season — 5th-worst in NFL.

Saints RBs have averaged just 1.5 yards after contact per carry this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed just 1.5 yards after contact per carry to RBs this season — T-best in NFL.

New Orleans Saints Offense: Important Stats

The Saints averaged 0.26 epa per play on contested throws last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.

The Saints have averaged 0.27 epa per play on contested throws since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.11.

The Saints have scored 12 TDs in the red zone this season — most in NFL.

The Saints have scored on 56% of their drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 37%.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have averaged -1.11 epa per play against tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.50.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 62% of rush attempts on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 61% of rush attempts this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Chiefs have run 26% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 4th quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.

New Orleans Saints Defense: Important Stats

The Saints defense has allowed a passer rating of just 0.0 in the red zone (10 Pass Attempts) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 95.6.

The Saints defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 41% on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

The Saints defense has allowed opponents to catch just 1 of 10 passes (10% Reception Pct) in the red zone this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 57%.

The Saints defense has allowed first downs on just 41% of plays on 3rd and short since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 59%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

The Chiefs defense has allowed 3 TDs on first drive of the game this season — T-most in NFL.

The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 5% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

Offenses facing the Chiefs targeted TEs 31% of the time (41 Pass Attempts/133 plays) this season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 19%.

The Chiefs were flagged 0 times on defense in Week 4 — T-fewest in NFL.

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