- Nick Hennion's anytime touchdown prediction for the Philadelphia Eagles.
- Colton Pool's pick for Saquon Barkley's rushing yardage prop.
- Shane Jackson's case for Patrick Mahomes to win a third straight Super Bowl MVP.
Below, bettors can find Super Bowl picks from The Roar staff for Super Bowl 59 based on NFL odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
In addition to these selection, be sure to check out a plethora of additional Super Bowl 59 content, including a Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction, Super Bowl Prop Bets and NFL Public Betting trends.
Super Bowl 59 Odds
Super Bowl Picks: Staff Bets for Super Bowl 59
Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown (-115) | 2+ Touchdowns (+600)
Nick Hennion: Whether you’re a fan of the tush push or not, there’s no denying Hurts will receive opportunities to score a touchdown in Super Bowl 59.
Plus, Hurts ran for three touchdowns in Super Bowl 57 and followed it with a two touchdown performance against Kansas City last season.
Dating back to the 2022 season, Hurts proved a touchdown machine for the Eagles. He’s cashed his anytime touchdown ticket 36 times in 54 games, a 66.7% hit rate.
Yet, these odds suggest Hurts’ implied probability to score a touchdown is 53.5%. That strikes me as a bit low for a quarterback who scored 12 times in 18 games just this season.
If you trust Hurts to score a touchdown in this game, history also suggests he could score multiple times.
Within that 54-game sample, Hurts scored multiple touchdowns 12 times, a 22.2% hit rate. At +600, the implied probability of Hurts scoring multiple touchdowns is 14.3%.
Given he’s scored multiple touchdowns in both meetings against Kansas City – albeit without Saquon Barkley – these prices are worth bets.
Saquon Barkley Under 112.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Colton Pool: Saquon Barkley has played phenomenally this season and deserved Offensive Player of the Year recognition.
The Eagles running back has arguably played even better in the playoffs, as he’s averaged 147.3 yards per game on the ground and cleared this total in all three outings.
But I don’t think Barkley will continue that success here. In this Super Bowl, I’m anticipating the real MVP will be the Chiefs defense.
Except for Lamar Jackson in Week 1, no player has cleared this total against Kansas City’s stout defense all season. In fact, no player has even rushed for more than 90 yards.
During the regular season, the Chiefs allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards per carry (4.1) in the league.
They also ranked in the top six in terms of fewest 20-plus yard runs allowed (eight) and fewest 40-plus yard runs given up (one).
Barkley is known for his explosiveness, and I could see him get close to 100 yards in the Super Bowl.
But I don’t expect he’ll thrive at quite the same level he has against other teams during the playoffs.
Patrick Mahomes to Win Super Bowl MVP (+105)
Shane Jackson: While my colleague Nick (who admittedly has had more success betting the NFL) has hope that someone other than the Chiefs will win, I know the truth:
We will watch Patrick Mahomes lift the Lombardi Trophy for the next decade.
Perhaps I’m being a tad dramatic.
However, I believe the Chiefs are the right side because they have the best player in the world coming off his best performance of the season.
According to Next Gen Stats, Mahomes set season highs in dropback success rate (64.7%) and dropback EPA (+21.5) during Kansas City’s win over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC title game.
He finished with a +19.3 EPA against man coverage and the second-highest scramble rate of his career.
In addition to having the best player who continues to deliver in the biggest moments, the Chiefs have the best head coach in the league (Andy Reid) and the best coordinator (Steve Spagnuolo).
They are also healthier than they have been all year.
I’m sure there are football reasons for picking the Eagles, but history tells us another thing.
Rather than pay the -120 price (54.55% implied probability) for Kansas City’s moneyline value, it’s worth scooping up the +105 odds (48.78%) on Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP instead.
For comparison, here is how Mahomes’ Super Bowl MVP odds have closed in the previous three times he’s won the award:
- 2023: +145
- 2022: +130
- 2018: +105
Quarterbacks have won the award in 10 of the previous 15 years and 33 of 58 overall. So, if you think the Chiefs win, save some juice and back Mahomes.
Eagles Moneyline (+100)
Ryan Hannable: It feels like most are acknowledging the Eagles are the better overall team, but the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
While the Chiefs have won an NFL record 17 consecutive games decided by one score, I see the potential for this not to be a one-score game.
The Eagles are the better team, and I could see a similar scenario to Super Bowl LV when the Buccaneers dominated the Chiefs 31-9. I do not expect that big of a margin, but I could see the Eagles winning by more than a score.
Philadelphia and Saquon Barkley should be able to have success on the ground, especially looking back at how James Cook and the Bills offensive line dominated the third quarter of the AFC title game.
And on the other side of the ball, while Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is 0-8 all-time against Mahomes, he’s thrown 10 touchdowns and two interceptions in those games.
By EPA, two of Mahomes’ worst games have come against a defense led by Fangio.
If the Eagles get off to a good start and Mahomes struggles like he has in the past against Fangio’s defenses, Philadelphia has a very good chance of winning the game.
