- The Vikings are a 4.5-point home favorite against the Falcons.
- The underdogs have won five of the last six games between the Falcons and Vikings.
- My Vikings vs. Falcons prediction is for Atlanta to cover the spread.
Kirk Cousins returns to Minneapolis on Sunday with an eye on ending a three-game losing streak.
The Falcons fell as home underdogs to the Chargers in Week 14. That drops Atlanta to 6-6 on the year, with only a tiebreaker keeping them atop the division.
The Vikings, meanwhile, earned a one-point win over the Cardinals in Week 13. At 10-2, the Vikings sit only a game behind the Lions in the NFC North.
Bet on Vikings vs. Falcons and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.
NFL Week 14 Odds: Vikings vs. Falcons
2024-12-08T18:00:00ZFalcons at Vikings
Vikings vs. Falcons Prediction
Based on Kirk Cousins’ strong ATS record off a loss and the Vikings’ weakening defensive metrics, my Vikings vs. Falcons prediction is the Falcons Spread (+4.5, -110).
Atlanta’s 17-13 defeat against the Chargers is slightly misleading. Cousins threw four interceptions, including one in the end zone, and had a pick returned for a touchdown.
But the Falcons offense dominated the line of scrimmage and produced a strong offensive performance.
Atlanta outgained the Chargers 350-187 and posted a 4.5-4.1 yards per play edge.
Some of that performance can be attributed to Atlanta’s Week 13 bye. However, it’s still encouraging against an outstanding Chargers defense.
In their previous two games, the Vikings rank 20th in defensive EPA per play and success rate, per rbsdm.com. For context, Minnesota ranked first in both categories in Weeks 1-11.
I also trust Cousins and offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to scheme up a counter to Brian Flores’ blitz, which Cousins saw first-hand last season.
While Atlanta’s pass defense discourages me against a strong Vikings passing game, I believe the backdoor cover will always be open for a good Falcons offense.
History also likes this spot for the Falcons and Cousins, who is 40-28 ATS off a loss, including 23-13 as an underdog.
Additionally, dating back to 2003, road underdogs priced between +1.5 and +5.5 in games 5-17 are 66% ATS, assuming they’ve either covered three straight or failed to cover three straight.
When those dogs fall between +4.5 and +5.5: 22-8 ATS.
Back the Falcons so long as they remain available at +4.5 or better in Week 14.
Betting Vikings vs. Falcons: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Vikings vs. Falcons public betting data and insights.
