- Georgia State is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas St
- Arkansas State vs. Georgia State Total (Over/Under): 59.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-4) visit Center Parc Stadium to take on the Georgia State Panthers (2-7) on Nov. 16 in Atlanta, GA. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EST.
Georgia State is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Arkansas State vs. Georgia State Over/Under is 59.5 total points.
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Arkansas State vs. Georgia State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Arkansas State | +2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +110 |
| Georgia State | -2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -135 |
Arkansas State vs Georgia State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Georgia State will win this game with 54.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas St and Georgia State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arkansas State vs Georgia State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Georgia State will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Arkansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Georgia State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Georgia State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Georgia State has hit the Game Total Over in 2 of their last 3 games at home (+0.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Georgia State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 2 of their last 3 games at home (+0.90 Units / 26% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Georgia State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Georgia State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Freddie Brock has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Dorian Fleming has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Ted Hurst has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas St is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 5.94% ROI
- Arkansas State is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
- Arkansas State is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Georgia State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Georgia State is 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.6 Units / -46.46% ROI).
- Georgia State is 1-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -58.89% ROI
- Georgia State is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.04% ROI
- Georgia State is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.04% ROI
Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Georgia State
Arkansas State is undefeated (10-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .710
Arkansas State is 9-4 (.692) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .580
Arkansas State is undefeated (10-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .752
Arkansas State is 10-2 (.833) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .622
Georgia State: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State
Georgia State is 4-12 (.250) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .413
Georgia State is 1-13 (.071) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: .454
Georgia State is 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: .536
Georgia State is 2-7 (.222) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-16th-worst in FBS; Average: .489
Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. Georgia State
Georgia State’s RBs have 57.3 receiving yards per game this season — 4th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 30.3 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — 34th-worst among FBS defenses.
Georgia State’s RBs have 57.3 receiving yards per game this season — 4th-best among FBS RBs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 242.9 receiving yards per game this season — 35th-worst among FBS defenses.
Georgia State’s QBs has rushed for 43 yards on 56 carries (just 0.8 YPC) this season — T-20th-worst among FBS teams. Arkansas State’s defense have allowed 5.8 YPC this season — 4th-worst among FBS defenses.
No notes available for this game
Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 56 carries (inf Carries Per TD) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– T-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 22.6
Arkansas State Skill Players have averaged 22.8 receptions per game (205/9) this season– 26th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 18.8
Arkansas State TEs have averaged just 7.1 yards per reception (462 yards/65 catches) since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2
Arkansas State RBs have averaged just 4.3 Yards per Carry (260 yards/60 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– T-28th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2
Arkansas State have gone for two on 20% of PATs this season– T-highest among Non-Power Conference Offenses; Average: 7%
Georgia State Offensive Stats & Trends
Georgia State RBs have been targeted 5.9 times per game (53/9) in the 2nd half this season– highest among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0
Georgia State RBs have averaged 4.6 receptions per game (41/9) in the 2nd half this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 1.4
Georgia State RBs were targeted 6 times on 3rd down last week– most among FBS Teams
Georgia State RBs have been targeted 9.8 times per game (88/9) this season– T-highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.4
Georgia State RBs have averaged 7.6 receptions per game (68/9) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.2
Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 11 of 32 carries (34%) last week– worst in FBS; Average: 13%
Arkansas State has allowed a Completion Pct of 69% (64 completions/93 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 54%
Arkansas State allowed 5 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last week– most in FBS
Arkansas State has allowed opponents to catch 64 of 92 passes (70% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%
Arkansas State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 7 of 16 carries (44%) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 17%
Georgia State Panthers Defensive Stats & Trends
Georgia State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 25 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 10%.
Georgia State has allowed a Completion Pct of 90% (26 completions/29 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 62%
Georgia State has allowed a Completion Pct of 90% (26 completions/29 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
Georgia State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 25 rushing attempts on 3rd and short this season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.
Georgia State has allowed a Completion Pct of 65% (45 completions/69 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
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