Baylor vs Houston Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

BetMGM Betting Nov 22, 2024, 1:14 PM

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Houston quarterback Donovan Smith (1) looks for a receiver as Central Florida defensive end Tre'Mon Morris-Brash (3) gives chase during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

(AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

Baylor is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Houston
Baylor vs. Houston Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
TV Channel: FS1

The Baylor Bears (6-4) visit TDECU Stadium to take on the Houston Cougars (4-6) on Nov. 23 in Houston, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

Baylor is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-115).

The Baylor vs. Houston Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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Baylor vs. Houston Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Baylor	-7.5 -115	50.5 -110	-300
Houston	+7.5 -105	50.5 -110	+240

Baylor vs Houston Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 70.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Baylor and Houston, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Baylor vs Houston Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Houston will cover the spread with 63.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Baylor Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Baylor have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
Baylor have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 52% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Houston Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Houston has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 74% ROI)
Houston has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+4.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Houston have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 54% ROI)
Houston has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 48% ROI)
Houston has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Baylor players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Baylor Player Prop Bets Today

Josh Cameron has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Hal Presley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Monaray Baldwin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Bryson Washington has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Houston players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Houston Player Prop Best Bets Today

Re’Shaun Sanford II has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Stephon Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Donovan Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Donovan Smith has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Donovan Smith has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor is 7-3 against the spread this college football season (+3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI).

Baylor is 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.2 Units / 6.25% ROI
Baylor is 7-3 when betting the Over for +3.7 Units / 33.64% ROI
Baylor is 3-7 when betting the Under for -4.7 Units / -42.73% ROI

Houston Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Houston is 5-5 against the spread this college football season (-0.45 Units / -4.13% ROI).

Houston is 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.4 Units / 46.35% ROI
Houston is 1-9 when betting the Over for -8.9 Units / -80.91% ROI
Houston is 9-1 when betting the Under for +7.9 Units / 71.82% ROI

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Houston

Baylor is 2-7 (.222) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .505

Baylor is 2-14 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .488

Baylor is 5-13 (.278) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .587

Baylor is 2-8 (.200) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .434

Houston: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

Houston is 3-12 (.200) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

Houston is 2-8 (.200) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .469

Houston is winless (0-8) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .352

Houston is 5-11 (.312) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .587

Matchup Notes for Baylor vs. Houston

Houston has just 0.9 receiving touchdowns per game this season — worst among Big 12 skill players. Baylor’s defense has allowed 1.9 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-20th-worst among FBS defenses.

Houston’s WRs has 7 receiving touchdowns this season — 4th-fewest among Big 12 WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 19 receiving touchdowns this season — T-3rd-most among Big 12 defenses.

Houston’s TEs has 21 receptions in 10 games (just 2.1 per game) this season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 2.1 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Baylor has gained 2,438 yards on 185 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — T-28th-best among FBS skill players. Houston’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Baylor has gained 2,438 yards on 185 receptions (13.2 YPR) this season — 5th-best among Big 12 skill players. Houston’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor’s WRs has gained 1,783 yards on 121 receptions (14.7 YPR) this season — T-23rd-best among FBS WRs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 11.8 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.

Baylor’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.6% of 308 attempts this season — T-15th-best among FBS offenses. Houston’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.6% of attempts this season — 22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Houston Offensive Stats & Trends

Houston have been sacked on 13% of pass attempts (29/230) this season– worst among Big 12 Offenses; Average: 5%

Houston TEs have averaged just 6.7 yards per reception (101 yards/15 catches) on 1st down since the 2023 season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.4

Houston Skill Players have averaged just 152.1 receiving yards per game (1,521/10) this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 234.7

Houston Skill Players have averaged just 10.1 yards per reception (1,521 yards/151 catches) this season– worst among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.3

Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor has allowed a Completion Pct of just 17% (1 completions/6 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Baylor has allowed a Completion Pct of just 17% (1 completions/6 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 53%

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Houston Cougars Defensive Stats & Trends

Houston has allowed first downs on 48% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22%

Houston has allowed first downs on 40% of pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22%

Houston has allowed first downs on 48% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 23%

Houston has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 60 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Houston has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 24 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 11%.