SMU vs Penn State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – College Football Playoffs

BetMGM Betting Dec 12, 2024, 11:39 AM

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Penn State quarterback Drew Allar (15) runs with the ball against Rutgers during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022, in Piscataway, N.J. Penn State won 55-10. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

(AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

Penn State is a -8.5 point favorite vs. SMU
SMU vs. Penn State Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
TV Channel: TNT

The SMU Mustangs (11-2) visit Beaver Stadium to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) on Dec. 21 in University Park, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Penn State is a betting favorite in the First Round of the College Football Playoffs, with the spread sitting at -8.5 (-115).

The SMU vs. Penn State Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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SMU vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
SMU	+8.5 -105	53.5 -110	+280
Penn State	-8.5 -115	53.5 -110	-350

SMU vs Penn State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 74.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both SMU and Penn State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

SMU vs Penn State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Penn State will cover the spread with 67.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.65 Units / 47% ROI)
SMU has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
SMU have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)
SMU have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.40 Units / 9% ROI)

Penn State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+5.80 Units / 0% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.35 Units / 21% ROI)
Penn State has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.60 Units / 7% ROI)
Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.15 Units / 0% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best SMU Player Prop Bets Today

Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 71% ROI)
Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Brashard Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kevin Jennings has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Romello Brinson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Penn State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Penn State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Harrison Wallace III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Julian Fleming has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Drew Allar has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Drew Allar has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)

SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

SMU is 8-5 against the spread this college football season (+2.5 Units / 17.54% ROI).

SMU is 10-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.75 Units / 5.72% ROI
SMU is 8-5 when betting the Over for +2.5 Units / 17.48% ROI
SMU is 5-8 when betting the Under for -3.8 Units / -26.57% ROI

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State is 6-7 against the spread this college football season (-1.65 Units / -11.58% ROI).

Penn State is 10-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +8 Units / 0.57% ROI
Penn State is 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
Penn State is 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI

SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

SMU is 8-1 (.889) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .522

SMU is 18-2 (.900) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .642

SMU is 11-2 (.846) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: .523

SMU is 18-2 (.900) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: .602

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. SMU

Penn State is 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: .434

Penn State is 17-1 (.944) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .632

Penn State is 10-1 (.909) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .648

Penn State is 7-1 (.875) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .479

Matchup Notes for SMU vs. Penn State

Penn State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 364 attempts this season — T-20th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.1% of attempts this season — best among ACC defenses.

Penn State’s TEs has 105 receptions in 13 games (8.1 per game) this season — 3rd-best among FBS TEs. SMU’s defense has allowed 20.2 receptions per game this season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s TEs has 105 receptions in 13 games (8.1 per game) this season — best among P5 TEs. SMU’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.

SMU has averaged 13.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — best among ACC skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

SMU has averaged 13.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 9th-best among FBS skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 3,471 passing yards in 13 games (267.0 YPG) this season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 178.5 passing yards per game this season — 16th-best among FBS defenses.

SMU Offensive Stats & Trends

SMU’s WRs has averaged 14.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 13th-best among FBS WRs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.9 RAC since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

SMU’s TEs has gained 701 yards on 48 receptions (14.6 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among ACC TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 9.8 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-28th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

Penn State TEs have averaged 8.1 receptions per game (105/13) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3

Penn State TEs have averaged 8.1 receptions per game (105/13) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7

Penn State TEs have 19 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Penn State RBs have caught 5 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– T-most among FBS Teams

SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends

SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of 72% (28 completions/39 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 53%

SMU has allowed 17 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-4th-most in FBS

SMU has allowed first downs on 41% of rush attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

SMU has tackled opponents for a loss on 87 of 443 rushing attempts (20% TFL%) this season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

SMU opponents has averaged just 2.3 Passing Attempts per TD (39 Pass Attempts/17 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-worst in FBS; Average: 3.9

Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (82/679) since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

Penn State has tackled opponents for a loss on 195 of 807 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (82/679) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 7%

Penn State has tackled opponents for a loss on 195 of 807 rushing attempts (24% TFL%) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 16%.