Texas vs Arizona St Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – College Football Playoffs

BetMGM Betting Dec 28, 2024, 11:40 AM

min read

Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham shouts at officials during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Colorado, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023, in Tempe, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

(AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Texas is a -13.5 point favorite vs. Arizona St
Texas vs. Arizona State Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Texas Longhorns (12-2) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils (11-2) on Jan. 1 in Atlanta, GA. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST.

Texas is a betting favorite in the Peach Bowl, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).

The Texas vs. Arizona State Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

Bet now on Arizona St vs Texas & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Texas vs. Arizona State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Texas	-13.5 -110	52.5 -115	-550
Arizona State	+13.5 -110	52.5 -105	+400

Texas vs Arizona State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 58.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas and Arizona St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Texas vs Arizona State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas will cover the spread with 52.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Arizona St vs Texas and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer

Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+10.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Texas has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+6.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Texas have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Texas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.25 Units / 13% ROI)

Arizona State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Arizona State has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+11.60 Units / 58% ROI)
Arizona State have covered the Spread in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 62% ROI)
Arizona State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+8.55 Units / 46% ROI)
Arizona State have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.80 Units / 45% ROI)
Arizona State have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 40% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Texas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas Player Prop Bets Today

Quintrevion Wisner has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 76% ROI)
Quinn Ewers has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Matthew Golden has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Gunnar Helm has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Arizona State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Arizona State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Jordyn Tyson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Cam Skattebo has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Sam Leavitt has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Cam Skattebo has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Xavier Guillory has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas is 8-6 against the spread this college football season (+1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI).

Texas is 11-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.65 Units / 0.6% ROI
Texas is 5-8 when betting the Over for -3.8 Units / -24.68% ROI
Texas is 8-5 when betting the Under for +2.5 Units / 16.23% ROI

Arizona State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Arizona St is 11-2 against the spread this college football season (+8.8 Units / 61.75% ROI).

Arizona State is 11-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.6 Units / 57.57% ROI
Arizona State is 8-5 when betting the Over for +2.5 Units / 17.48% ROI
Arizona State is 5-8 when betting the Under for -3.8 Units / -26.57% ROI

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Arizona State

Texas is 17-1 (.944) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .570

Texas is winless (0-2) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .461

Texas is winless (0-2) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .414

Texas is 17-1 (.944) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .523

Arizona State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Arizona State is undefeated (10-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .663

Arizona State is undefeated (10-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .630

Arizona State is 10-3 (.769) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns this season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .627

Arizona State is 5-3 (.625) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times this season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .444

Matchup Notes for Texas vs. Arizona State

Arizona State’s WRs has gained 1,898 yards on 123 receptions (15.4 YPR) this season — T-best among Big 12 WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.1 Yards Per Reception this season — best among FBS defenses.

Arizona State has gained 2,902 yards on 207 receptions (14.0 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among Big 12 skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.1 Yards Per Reception this season — best among P5 defenses.

Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.2% of 472 attempts this season — 9th-best among FBS offenses. Arizona State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.7% of attempts this season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.

Texas’s TEs has 67 receptions in 14 games (4.8 per game) this season — 2nd-best among SEC TEs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed just 2.7 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-30th-best among FBS defenses.

Texas’s TEs has 67 receptions in 14 games (4.8 per game) this season — 2nd-best among SEC TEs. Arizona State’s defense has allowed 20.1 receptions per game this season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas QBs have 33 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Texas QBs have 22 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams

Texas Skill Players have 46 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among SEC Teams

Texas WRs have averaged 23.0 yards per reception (875 yards/38 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.4

Arizona State Offensive Stats & Trends

Arizona State RBs have 6 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Arizona State’s TEs has 31 receptions in 13 games (just 2.4 per game) this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Texas’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas has allowed just 9.1 yards per completion (2,194 yards/242 completions) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 11.7

Texas opponents has averaged 58.3 Passing Attempts per TD (408 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 20.7

Texas has allowed 100.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– best in the SEC; Average: 152.2

Texas opponents has averaged 58.3 Passing Attempts per TD (408 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 26.3

Texas opponents has averaged 58.3 Passing Attempts per TD (408 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.1

Arizona State Sun Devils Defensive Stats & Trends

Arizona State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 4 of 55 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14%.

Arizona State allowed 5.6 touchdowns per interception (28 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) in the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Arizona State allowed 5.6 touchdowns per interception (28 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 1.9

Arizona State intercepted 5 of 419 attempts (83.8 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 36.7

Arizona State intercepted 5 of 419 attempts (83.8 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 38.0