- The Lions are a 3-point home favorite against the Vikings.
- The Vikings are 6-1 SU away from home this season, averaging 24.4 points per game.
- My Lions vs. Vikings prediction is to tease Minnesota up through two key numbers.
Two NFC North rivals go for all the marbles at Ford Field as the Lions host the Vikings for the NFC’s top seed.
Detroit, which faces a trip to San Francisco on MNF, defeated the Vikings 31-29 in Minnesota earlier this season. Entering this Week 18 contest, Detroit has yet to lose a divisional game.
Minnesota held on for a 27-25 win over the Packers on Sunday, their ninth victory in a row. A Week 7 loss to Detroit remains their only divisional loss of the season.
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NFL Week 18 Odds: Lions vs. Vikings
Lions vs. Vikings Prediction
Based on the Lions’ myriad defensive injuries and their short rest spot, my Lions vs. Vikings prediction is to Tease Minnesota (+9).
Sunday’s game marks an atrocious spot for the Lions.
After playing on Monday in San Francisco, Dan Campbell’s squad returns home to play a Vikings team with an extra day to prepare for Sunday’s game.
That should allow a potent Vikings offense, which entered Week 17 ranked 14th in offensive DVOA, to exploit a banged up Detroit defense.
Initially, Detroit’s defense successfully accounted for Aidan Hutchinson’s absence.
But as their schedule has toughened, Detroit’s metrics have fallen off a cliff.
In the first 12 weeks of the season, the Lions ranked second in defensive EPA per play and seventh in defensive success rate, per rbsdm.com.
But since Week 13, Aaron Glenn’s unit ranks 30th and 19th in those respective categories.
The last time Detroit faced a divisional opponent at home, they failed to cover a 3.5-point spread against Green Bay, which also covered the six-point teaser.
Minnesota has also demonstrated previous success covering a teaser as underdogs this season.
While it’s a limited sample – the Vikings have closed market dogs only three times this season – Kevin O’Connell’s side is 3-0 ATS and 3-0 against a six-point teaser this season.
While question marks surround Minnesota’s ability to contain a powerful Detroit offense, the Lions’ lackluster defense should allow for the visitors to cover a big number.
For a teaser partner, take the Steelers up from +2.5 to +8.5 as home dogs against the Bengals.
Betting Lions vs. Vikings: NFL Public Betting
Check back on Friday for Lions vs. Vikings public betting data and insights.
