- The Astros are -120 favorites vs the Mariners
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Houston Astros (-120) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+100) on Wednesday, September 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Astros vs Mariners Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Astros are 86-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 75-82 ATS.
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +140 | O 8 -115 | -120 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -165 | U 8 -105 | +100 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 57.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 23 away games (+12.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 12 away games (+12.30 Units / 78% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+12.20 Units / 111% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.25 Units / 55% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.20 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+15.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 22 games at home (+10.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+10.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+10.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -450 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Josh Rojas | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -145 |
| Bryce Miller | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +115 |
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 75 away games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 51 away games (+14.13 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 42 away games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 46 games (+10.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 75 away games (+9.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 56 games (+13.39 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+12.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 44 of their last 73 games at home (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 77 games (+8.20 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+7.90 Units / 18% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 78-80 against the Run Line (-5.25 Units / -2.64% ROI).
- 86-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.3 Units / -8.03% ROI
- 82-72 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 0.96% ROI
- 72-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.1 Units / -9.95% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 75-82 against the Run Line (-12.75 Units / -6.35% ROI).
- 85-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -3.53% ROI
- 79-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.05 Units / -0.03% ROI
- 72-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.2 Units / -8.26% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 35% (161/459) against Framber Valdez this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (292/529) against Framber Valdez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (199/328) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 39% (25/64) against Bryce Miller with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Bryce Miller has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (36 Total Bases / 45 ABs) vs left-handed batters over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .403 — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .444 (20-for-45) against Bryce Miller over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — first Percentile.
Bryce Miller allowed a batting average of just .197 vs right-handed batters (tied for seventh best)– 95th Percentile and .298 vs left-handed batters this season (tied for eighth worst among non-qualified SPs)– 11th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 38-20 (.655) after a road loss since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Astros are 12-7 (.632) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Astros are 89-23 (.795) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Astros are 160-11 (.936) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .908.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 44-7 (.863) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Mariners are 44-6 (.880) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Mariners are 124-23 (.844) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Mariners are 30-30 (.500) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 1,024 strikeouts in 5,719 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 644 strikeouts in 3,638 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are slugging .461 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Astros hitters have just 323 strikeouts in 1,788 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .178 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Mariners hitters have pulled 51% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .172 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.39 (1385.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 36% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.44 (2854.2 IP) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of 51% against the Mariners pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 400 of 5,818 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.34 (1445.0 IP) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Mariners pitchers have walked 186 of 2,868 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Emerson Hancock (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Thumb, D10
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
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