- The Astros are -155 favorites vs the Reds
- Astros vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Astros / Reds TV Channel: SCHN | BSOH | ESPN+ | MLBN
The Houston Astros (-160) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+135) on Thursday, September 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Astros are 75-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 78-62 ATS.
Astros vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Astros starting pitcher: Hunter Brown 11-7, 3.58 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Rhett Lowder 0-1, 2.25 ERA
Astros vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 -105 | O 9 +100 | -160 |
| Reds | +1.5 -115 | U 9 -120 | +135 |
Astros vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 59.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 21 away games (+42.40 Units / 202% ROI)
- Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 44 games (+14.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Hunter Brown has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+14.35 Units / 59% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 36 games (+13.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 48 games (+13.35 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games at home (+22.00 Units / 138% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 29 games (+19.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+13.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 49 games (+10.90 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 122 games (+19.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 81 games (+16.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 66 games (+12.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 17 away games (+9.20 Units / 48% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 59 games at home (+14.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 122 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 49 games (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 71 games at home (+7.35 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 90 games (+2.50 Units / 2% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 70-69 against the Run Line (+3.6 Units / 2.12% ROI).
- 75-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.7 Units / -3.88% ROI
- 55-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -32.2 Units / -21.22% ROI
- 80-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.05 Units / 12.34% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 78-62 against the Run Line (+9.45 Units / 5.11% ROI).
- 67-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.75 Units / -5.24% ROI
- 66-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.5 Units / -4.85% ROI
- 66-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -7 Units / -4.56% ROI
Reds vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan Singleton (HOU) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Reds vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Amed Rosario (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Reds vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -135 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan Singleton (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Reds vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhett Lowder (CIN) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
| Hunter Brown (HOU) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .280 (61-for-218) against Hunter Brown when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — ninth Percentile.
Hunter Brown has walked 19 of 139 batters (14%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 30% (58/196) against Hunter Brown on fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH against his fastballs since last season (353 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 90.8
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Rhett Lowder has limited playing time.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Astros are just 0-49 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Astros are 193-28 (.873) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Astros are just 10-21 (.323) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 78-56 (.582) after a road win since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Reds are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Reds are just 12-24 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Reds are just 16-21 (.432) after a home loss this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,630/11,500 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters have just 922 strikeouts in 5,060 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (810/5,247 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.66 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .149 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Reds are batting just .231 against LHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Reds are batting just .115 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
Reds hitters have 69 extra-base hits out of 154 total hits (45%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 388.1 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.5
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros have allowed 3.79 runs per game (884/233) on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
The Astros have won just 17% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .295 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 4.76 (2141.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
Reds vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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