- The Braves are -210 favorites vs the Marlins
- Braves vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Braves / Marlins TV Channel: BSSE | BSFL
The Atlanta Braves (-210) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+170) on Friday, September 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Braves are 83-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 71-82 ATS.
Braves vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 8-8, 4.06 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Valente Bellozo 2-4, 3.71 ERA
Braves vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -120 | O 8.5 -105 | -210 |
| Marlins | +1.5 +100 | U 8.5 -115 | +170 |
Braves vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 64.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 16 away games (+28.70 Units / 179% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+21.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+11.95 Units / 39% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+11.85 Units / 70% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 37 games (+11.10 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 44 games (+33.50 Units / 76% ROI)
- Connor Norby has hit the Hits Over in his last 16 games at home (+17.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- Jonah Bride has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Connor Norby has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+10.10 Units / 50% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 139 games (+33.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 27 away games (+14.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 away games (+10.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 14 away games (+8.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 away games (+6.65 Units / 19% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 54 of their last 78 games at home (+33.15 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 61 games (+11.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+11.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+4.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 58 games (+3.85 Units / 7% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 71-82 against the Run Line (-14.75 Units / -7.94% ROI).
- 83-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.25 Units / -8.99% ROI
- 58-90 when betting on the total runs Over for -39.9 Units / -23.89% ROI
- 90-58 when betting on the total runs Under for +26 Units / 15.32% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 71-82 against the Run Line (-33.36 Units / -16.73% ROI).
- 56-97 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.15 Units / -12.65% ROI
- 82-64 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.05 Units / 7.13% ROI
- 64-82 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.15 Units / -15% ROI
Marlins vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -275 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Sean Murphy (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Marlins vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Marlins vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Marlins vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Valente Bellozo (MIA) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -115 |
| Charlie Morton (ATL) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (226/591) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 78 of 787 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 53 of 512 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — seventh Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (1,331/2,873) vs left-handed batters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total CB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Valente Bellozo has a strikeout rate of just 4% (1 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 0 Percentile.
Valente Bellozo has a strikeout rate of just 10% (7 SO in 70 PAs) this month (3 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Valente Bellozo has a strikeout rate of just 4% (1 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Valente Bellozo has not walked any of the 27 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Braves are 53-69 (.434) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Braves are 239-62 (.794) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Braves are 80-143 (.359) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Braves are 150-9 (.943) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Marlins are just 6-22 (.214) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .464.
The Marlins are just 45-31 (.592) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Marlins are just 18-31 (.367) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Marlins are just 22-18 (.550) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .485 against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Braves hitters are slugging .459 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .823 (2,894 PA’s) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Braves are batting .270 against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (4,590 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .282 (1,885 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .220 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.40 (724.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
The Marlins have allowed 6.09 runs per game (475/78) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have walked 525 of 5,907 batters (9%) this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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