- The Brewers are -250 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Dakota Hudson
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Watch the game on BSWI
The St. Louis Cardinals (+190) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-250) on Thursday, September 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Cardinals vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cardinals are 69-89 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 77-81 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cardinals | +1.5 +100 | O 8 +100 | +190 |
| Brewers | -1.5 -120 | U 8 -120 | -250 |
Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 76.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jordan Walker has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 26 games (+14.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jordan Walker has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 away games (+8.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+8.55 Units / 69% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+18.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 35 games (+14.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+12.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 35 games (+12.40 Units / 33% ROI)
Brewers vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Masyn Winn | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Brewers vs Cardinals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Masyn Winn | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Luken Baker | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
Brewers vs Cardinals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Masyn Winn | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -550 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tommy Edman | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Cardinals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
| Dakota Hudson | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -165 |
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 44 away games (+10.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 44 away games (+10.13 Units / 20% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 45 of their last 78 away games (+7.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 away games (+6.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.85 Units / 54% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 90 games (+12.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 37 games (+12.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.18 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.08 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 36 games (+6.48 Units / 14% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 76-82 against the Run Line (-13.85 Units / -6.88% ROI).
- 69-89 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.5 Units / -16.35% ROI
- 74-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.65 Units / -6.11% ROI
- 77-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -2.39% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 77-81 against the Run Line (-7.3 Units / -3.67% ROI).
- 89-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.85 Units / 3.34% ROI
- 71-81 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.65 Units / -10.69% ROI
- 81-71 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 1.65% ROI
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dakota Hudson has allowed an OBP of .391 (266 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 0 Percentile.
Dakota Hudson has a strike rate of just 58% (1,001/1,712) vs left-handed batters since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Dakota Hudson has allowed an OBP of .413 (46 PA’s) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 3rd highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .304 — sixth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (175/890) against Dakota Hudson since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 59% of the time (153/259) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
87 of Corbin Burnes’ 196 strikeouts (44%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 5% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 65% of the time (321/495) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 63% of the time (163/259) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cardinals are 27-10 (.730) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 4-68 (.056) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Cardinals are just 67-88 (.432) this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 16-72 (.182) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Brewers are 23-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Brewers are 43-25 (.632) after a home loss since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Brewers are 25-23 (.521) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
The Brewers are 88-68 (.564) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,886 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .243 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (12 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .605.
The Cardinals have a winning percentage of just 42% at home this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Cardinals hitters have just 1,916 strikeouts in 9,332 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 128 extra-base hits out of 485 total hits (just 26%) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .244 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Brewers are batting just .234 against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.76 (1406.0 IP) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Brewers pitchers since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers vs. Cardinals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thyago Vieira (Brewers): Calf, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Lat, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jacob Bukauskas (Brewers): Finger, D15
- Elvis Peguero (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Nolan Arenado (Cardinals): Back, D10
- Giovanny Gallegos (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Joseph Romero (Cardinals): Knee, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cardinals): Wrist, D10
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Brendan Donovan (Cardinals): Elbow, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Foot, D10
- Nolan Gorman (Cardinals): Hamstring, D10
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Lat, D15
- Wilking Rodríguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Burleson (Cardinals): Thumb, D10
- Guillermo Zuñiga (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Dylan Carlson (Cardinals): Oblique, D60
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