- The Marlins (61-87) are -150 favorites vs the Cubs (62-85)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (2-5), 3.48 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (9-10), 3.98 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Chicago Cubs (+125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-150) on Tuesday, September 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Cubs vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 61-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 69-77 ATS.
Cubs vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -175 | O 7 -115 | +125 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +145 | U 7 -105 | -150 |
Cubs vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 53.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Marcus Stroman has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.25 Units / 56% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+9.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Trevor Rogers has hit the Earned Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+7.35 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Marlins vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -140 |
Marlins vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Lewin Diaz | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Marlins vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -115 |
| Adrian Sampson | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+7.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+6.20 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 away games (+6.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 16 away games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+3.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+3.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.40 Units / 12% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 71-73 against the Run Line (-13.15 Units / -7.16% ROI).
- 61-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.8 Units / -9.58% ROI
- 59-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.3 Units / -14.09% ROI
- 74-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.1 Units / 5.72% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 69-77 against the Run Line (-19.5 Units / -10.1% ROI).
- 61-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.9 Units / -16.18% ROI
- 65-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.25 Units / -10.05% ROI
- 74-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.75 Units / 1.71% ROI
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has struck out just 3% (1/31) of right-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 4 double plays in 10 opportunities (40%) this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has a strikeout rate of just 22% (8 SO in 36 PAs) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has a strikeout rate of just 6% (5 SO in 88 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 14% — sixth Percentile.
Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 44% of the time (257/585) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 31% of the time (203/664) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has struck out 29% (93/316) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 84th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 40% of the time (202/512) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Cubs are just 18-106 (.145) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Cubs are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 11-43 (.204) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Cubs are just 4-62 (.061) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Marlins are just 8-38 (.174) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Marlins are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Marlins are just 8-51 (.136) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Marlins are 36-5 (.878) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .361 (84 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .648.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 368 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .156 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
The Cubs are batting .372 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,909 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .268 (1,213 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .628 (2,909 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Marlins hitters have 805 strikeouts in 2,909 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,089 of 11,788 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 17% of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Marlins vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, Day-to-Day
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Triceps, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
- Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
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