Cubs vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 20

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 20, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Marlins (61-87) are -150 favorites vs the Cubs (62-85)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (2-5), 3.48 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Pablo López (9-10), 3.98 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Chicago Cubs (+125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-150) on Tuesday, September 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Cubs vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 61-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 69-77 ATS.

Cubs vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -175O 7 -115+125
Marlins -1.5 +145U 7 -105-150

Cubs vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 53.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Marlins vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Marcus Stroman has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.25 Units / 56% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+9.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Trevor Rogers has hit the Earned Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.10 Units / 54% ROI)
  • JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+7.35 Units / 23% ROI)

Marlins vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
JJ Bleday 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Jon Berti 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Lewin Diaz 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000

Marlins vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Garrett Cooper 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
JJ Bleday 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jacob Stallings 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Jon Berti 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Lewin Diaz 0.5 +100 0.5 -140

Marlins vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Garrett Cooper 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
JJ Bleday 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jon Berti 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Lewin Diaz 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Marlins vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Pablo Lopez 6.5 -120 6.5 -115
Adrian Sampson 3.5 -135 3.5 -105
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+7.45 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+6.20 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 16 away games (+6.15 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 16 away games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.05 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games (+3.85 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+3.75 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.40 Units / 12% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 71-73 against the Run Line (-13.15 Units / -7.16% ROI).

  • 61-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.8 Units / -9.58% ROI
  • 59-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.3 Units / -14.09% ROI
  • 74-59 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.1 Units / 5.72% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 69-77 against the Run Line (-19.5 Units / -10.1% ROI).

  • 61-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.9 Units / -16.18% ROI
  • 65-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.25 Units / -10.05% ROI
  • 74-65 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.75 Units / 1.71% ROI

Adrian Sampson has struck out just 3% (1/31) of right-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 4 double plays in 10 opportunities (40%) this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has a strikeout rate of just 22% (8 SO in 36 PAs) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has a strikeout rate of just 6% (5 SO in 88 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 72 total IP; League Avg: 14% — sixth Percentile.

Pablo López: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 44% of the time (257/585) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 31% of the time (203/664) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has struck out 29% (93/316) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 84th Percentile.

Pablo Lopez has thrown his changeup 40% of the time (202/512) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Cubs are just 18-106 (.145) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Cubs are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cubs are just 11-43 (.204) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Cubs are just 4-62 (.061) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Marlins are just 8-38 (.174) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Marlins are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins are just 8-51 (.136) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.

The Marlins are 36-5 (.878) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .361 (84 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .648.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 52 double plays in 368 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .156 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.

The Cubs are batting .372 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .283 (2,909 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .268 (1,213 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .628 (2,909 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Marlins hitters have 805 strikeouts in 2,909 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,089 of 11,788 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 43% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Marlins have won just just 17% of the time since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Marlins vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, Day-to-Day
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Triceps, Day-to-Day
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
  • Rafael Ortega (Cubs): Finger, D60
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.