- The Diamondbacks are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Diamondbacks vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | DBTV
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+105) on Monday, August 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 60-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 55-56 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zac Gallen 9-5, 3.57 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen 0-1, 5.47 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +135 | O 8.5 -115 | -125 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -105 | +105 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Monday‘s MLB game with 55.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 18 games (+35.20 Units / 196% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+16.85 Units / 94% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+15.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+14.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.80 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 22 games at home (+53.50 Units / 243% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+14.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+11.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+10.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+10.55 Units / 42% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 56 games (+19.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 47 games (+15.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 55 games (+14.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 away games (+10.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 away games (+10.05 Units / 39% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 66 of their last 111 games (+16.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 111 games (+15.82 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 47 games at home (+13.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games at home (+10.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 97 games (+8.40 Units / 7% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 56-56 against the Run Line (-7.1 Units / -4.76% ROI).
- 60-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 3.1% ROI
- 61-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.65 Units / 6.15% ROI
- 48-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.8 Units / -15.37% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 55-56 against the Run Line (+1.5 Units / 1.11% ROI).
- 67-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.82 Units / 11% ROI
- 54-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -1.91% ROI
- 51-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -6.79% ROI
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Bell (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Kevin Newman (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Randal Grichuk (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Josh Bell (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Allen (CLE) | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
| Zac Gallen (ARI) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zac Gallen has allowed an OPS of just .625 (459 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .685 — 86th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (12/18) against Zac Gallen in his last start — 3rd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .317 (217 Total Bases / 684 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .380 — 96th Percentile.
Zac Gallen has located his breaking pitches down 82% of the time (1,627/1,972) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 69% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .535 (46 Total Bases / 86 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: .311 — 0 Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed an OPS of .977 (154 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: .704 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 10% (6/60) against Logan Allen with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed a slugging percentage of .613 (84 Total Bases / 137 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: .401 — 0 Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Diamondbacks are 14-175 (.074) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Diamondbacks are 14-12 (.538) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .367.
The Diamondbacks are just 183-18 (.910) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are 113-29 (.796) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Guardians are just 2-38 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Guardians are 66-44 (.600) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 39-28 (.582) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
The Guardians are 26-16 (.619) after a loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .509.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .283 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .477 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .279.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .932 (478 PA’s) over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .738.
26% of Diamondbacks hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .277 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .375 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .197 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Guardians have allowed 0.81 runs per game (90/111) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have won 45% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, 7-Day IL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks): Suspension, Suspension
- Blake Walston (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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