- The Diamondbacks are -110 favorites vs the Guardians
- Diamondbacks vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | DBTV
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-110) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-110) on Wednesday, August 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 61-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 56-56 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 5-6, 3.97 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 10-6, 3.43 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -115 | -110 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -105 | -110 |
Diamondbacks vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 19 games (+38.90 Units / 205% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+18.30 Units / 96% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+14.35 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+13.10 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.90 Units / 55% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 23 games at home (+52.50 Units / 228% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+10.50 Units / 42% ROI)
- Angel Martinez has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 48% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 57 games (+20.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 48 games (+16.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 56 games (+15.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 away games (+9.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.95 Units / 34% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 67 of their last 112 games (+17.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 112 games (+14.82 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 48 games at home (+14.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games at home (+11.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 98 games (+9.40 Units / 8% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 56-57 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -5.39% ROI).
- 61-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 3.78% ROI
- 62-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.65 Units / 6.9% ROI
- 48-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -19.95 Units / -16.16% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 56-56 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 1.82% ROI).
- 67-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.82 Units / 10.23% ROI
- 55-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.35 Units / -1.09% ROI
- 51-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.4 Units / -7.66% ROI
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt allowed a batting average of just .185 vs right-handed batters (fifth best)– 94th Percentile and .299 vs left-handed batters this season (worst among qualified SPs)– second Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has allowed an OBP of just .226 (274 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .291 — 97th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt has struck out just 17% (43/261) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .299 (72-for-241) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
12 of Ben Lively’s 32 breaking pitch strikeouts (38%) have been backdoor this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .196 against Ben Lively vs left-handed batters this season — ninth best among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP– 90th Percentile. Left handed batters hit .296 (55-for-186) against him last season — 10th worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 10th Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed a slugging percentage of .623 (96 Total Bases / 154 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: .433 — third Percentile.
15 of Ben Lively’s 60 breaking pitch strikeouts (25%) have been backdoor since last season — 8th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 93rd Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Diamondbacks are 15-12 (.556) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .367.
The Diamondbacks are just 165-28 (.855) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Diamondbacks are just 184-18 (.911) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are 14-6 (.700) after a home loss this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Guardians are 19-19 (.500) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Guardians are just 2-38 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Guardians are 59-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .945.
The Guardians are 50-2 (.962) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .545 with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Diamondbacks are batting .283 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .968 (445 PA’s) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: .743.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,388 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 2,132 strikeouts in 11,657 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Guardians are batting just .276 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Guardians have allowed 0.82 runs per game (92/112) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have won 44% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .227 against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Guardians vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, 7-Day IL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks): Suspension, Suspension
- Blake Walston (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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