- The Pirates are -155 favorites vs the Diamondbacks
- Diamondbacks vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Pirates TV Channel: DBTV | SNPT | MLBN
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+130) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-155) on Sunday, August 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 59-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 62-48 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 8-6, 4.52 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 6-1, 1.90 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -115 | +130 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +140 | U 8 -105 | -155 |
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+34.10 Units / 379% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+16.35 Units / 56% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+14.75 Units / 87% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+13.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.45 Units / 53% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+17.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 games at home (+15.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 games at home (+13.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+10.95 Units / 29% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 55 games (+18.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 46 games (+14.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 54 games (+12.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 21 away games (+11.05 Units / 45% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 71 games (+16.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 66 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+10.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 66 games (+9.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 55-56 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -5.48% ROI).
- 59-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.95 Units / 2.12% ROI
- 60-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.65 Units / 5.4% ROI
- 48-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.7 Units / -14.6% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 62-48 against the Run Line (+11.81 Units / 8.27% ROI).
- 56-54 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 1.17% ROI
- 50-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.7 Units / -9.58% ROI
- 56-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.78 Units / 1.48% ROI
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -450 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryne Nelson (ARI) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -135 |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -145 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryne Nelson has not allowed a home run in any of the last 32.0 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 68.0.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (134/798) against Ryne Nelson since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Ryne Nelson has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 9.1 innings pitched — Carlos Estevez has the longest active streak at 26.1.
Opponents are hitting .290 (117-for-403) against Ryne Nelson when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: .240 — fourth Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has at least 6 strikeouts in each of his last 10 games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 41% (34 SO in 83 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 33% (103 SO in 309 PAs) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has an ERA of 1.90 (80.2 IP)this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 3.98 — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Diamondbacks are just 182-18 (.910) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Diamondbacks are 13-12 (.520) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .367.
The Diamondbacks are 18-11 (.621) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Diamondbacks are 26-165 (.136) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .096.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Pirates are 17-11 (.607) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .443.
The Pirates are just 80-111 (.419) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Pirates are 14-1 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .807.
The Pirates are just 17-28 (.378) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .280 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Diamondbacks are batting .283 against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,360 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of .561 (5,361 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 40 extra-base hits out of 157 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .494 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
The Pirates are batting just .153 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters have 429 strikeouts in 1,270 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 27% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,519 of 16,678 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates have won 43% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Pirates have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Merrill Kelly (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Nelson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jordan Lawlar (Arizona Diamondbacks): Hamstring, 7-Day IL
- Eduardo Rodriguez (Arizona Diamondbacks): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Andrew Saalfrank (Arizona Diamondbacks): Suspension, Suspension
- Blake Walston (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Drey Jameson (Arizona Diamondbacks): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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