- Dodgers / Reds TV Channel: SNLA | MLBN
The Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+130) on Thursday, February 29, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 8:05pm EST in Goodyear, AZ.
This season, the Dodgers are 5-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 2-0 ATS.
Dodgers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Dodgers | -155 |
| Reds | +130 |
Dodgers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+4.20 Units / 105% ROI)
- Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.95 Units / 80% ROI)
- Miguel Vargas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Will Smith has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+0.75 Units / 13% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Curt Casali has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.40 Units / 170% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.85 Units / 76% ROI)
- Curt Casali has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 80 of their last 139 games (+23.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 80 away games (+20.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 80 games (+11.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.34 Units / 88% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 96 of their last 161 games (+20.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games at home (+10.93 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Dodgers are 5-2 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 42.41% ROI).
- 5-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.6 Units / 28.02% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.85 Units / 23.57% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -28.76% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Reds are 2-0 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 51.95% ROI).
- 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 50% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -8.7% ROI
- 1-1 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -4.76% ROI
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton allowed a slugging percentage of .696 (32 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on low fastballs in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .430 — third Percentile.
James Paxton had a strike rate of 71% (363/513) in two strike counts in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents batted .370 (17-for-46) against James Paxton on low fastballs in the 2023 season — tied for 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .274 — eighth Percentile.
James Paxton located 40% of his pitches inside (520/1,295) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — tied for 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 89th Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has an average spin rate of 2783.4 RPM on sliders since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2397.6 — 98th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft allowed a slugging percentage of .412 (122 Total Bases / 296 ABs) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .310 — third Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 31% (43/137) against Graham Ashcraft’s curve and slider in the 2023 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft struck out just 16% (51/327) of right-handed batters he faced in the 2023 season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 23% — ninth Percentile.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Dodgers are 41-16 (.719) after a road loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Dodgers are 185-29 (.864) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Dodgers were 44-17 (.721) after a loss in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Dodgers were 85-9 (.904) when they allowed 4 or fewer runs in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Reds are just 48-38 (.558) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds were just 24-12 (.667) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Reds were 13-63 (.171) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Dodgers have a winning percentage of 68% at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Dodgers hitters had 165 extra-base hits out of 385 total hits (43%) against LHP in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Dodgers hitters had an OPS of .776 (1,953 PA’s) in innings 7-9 in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
Dodgers hitters had an OPS of .795 (6,333 PA’s) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .734.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Reds have won just 57% of games in which they have scored first at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds have hit 1,462 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater in the 2023 season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Dodgers pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (121.2 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
The Dodgers pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Dodgers pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 31% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Dodgers have won 51% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers walked 613 of 6,310 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers walked 140 of 1,443 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Reds vs. Dodgers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, Out
- Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds): Foot, Day-To-Day
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Oblique, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Lower Leg, Day-To-Day
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, Day-To-Day
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Abdomen, Out
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Tony Gonsolin (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Blake Treinen (Los Angeles Dodgers): Shoulder, Out
- David Peralta (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Julio Urias (Los Angeles Dodgers): Personal, Out
- Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers): Shoulder, Out
- Nick Frasso (Los Angeles Dodgers): Shoulder, Out
- Dustin May (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers): Elbow, Out
- Daniel Hudson (Los Angeles Dodgers): Knee, Out
- Enrique Hernandez (Los Angeles Dodgers): Groin, Out
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