Guardians vs Royals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 9

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 09, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Guardians (40-41) are -140 favorites vs the Royals (31-51)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (5-6), 3.71 ERA
  • Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (1-4), 4.76 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSKC

The Cleveland Guardians (-140) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+115) on Saturday, July 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Kansas City.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Guardians vs Royals Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 40-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 35-47 ATS.

Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians-1.5 +115O 8.5 +100-140
Royals +1.5 -140U 8.5 -120+115

Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 76.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Royals vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.55 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+6.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.45 Units / 51% ROI)

Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+11.90 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Whit Merrifield has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 70% ROI)
  • MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.75 Units / 54% ROI)

Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Benintendi 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Hunter Dozier 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
MJ Melendez 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200

Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Benintendi 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Hunter Dozier 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
MJ Melendez 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Nicky Lopez 0.5 -190 0.5 +135

Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew Benintendi 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
Hunter Dozier 0.5 +130 0.5 -190
MJ Melendez 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Michael A. Taylor 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jon Heasley 3.5 +115 3.5 -160
Triston McKenzie 4.5 -150 4.5 +105
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 50 games (+6.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 62 games (+4.20 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 21 away games (+3.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 41 games (+2.25 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+9.00 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 36 games at home (+5.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+5.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.35 Units / 28% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 41-40 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -1.97% ROI).

  • 40-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.77% ROI
  • 37-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.2 Units / -5.8% ROI
  • 38-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.7 Units / -3.04% ROI

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 35-47 against the Run Line (-24 Units / -21.61% ROI).

  • 31-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.75 Units / -17.93% ROI
  • 40-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -1.67% ROI
  • 38-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.35 Units / -6.97% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .109 (18-for-165) against Triston McKenzie with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — 95th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (40/153) against Triston McKenzie in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .151 (18-for-119) against Triston McKenzie this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .233 — 98th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has allowed a BABIP of .217 this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .282 — 98th Percentile.

Jonathan Heasley: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 56% (114/202) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Jon Heasley has allowed a slugging percentage of .575 (23 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .373 — seventh Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a chase rate of just 15% (14/94) against Jon Heasley when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.

Jon Heasley has allowed a slugging percentage of .568 (54 Total Bases / 95 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .388 — third Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Guardians are 25-1 (.962) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .891.

The Guardians are 7-32 (.179) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .109.

The Guardians are 8-35 (.186) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .083.

The Guardians are 24-3 (.889) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Royals are just 0-24 (.000) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .333.

The Royals are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .891.

The Royals are just 1-42 (.023) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .109.

The Royals are just 4-38 (.095) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

Guardians hitters have just 374 strikeouts in 2,157 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have just 562 strikeouts in 3,041 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .321 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Royals hitters are slugging just .339 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.

Royals hitters have just 580 strikeouts in 2,998 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Royals hitters have just 479 strikeouts in 2,537 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Royals have won just 36% of home games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 76%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 15 of 132 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (15 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.3 MPH since the start of last season (5,947 balls in play) — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Royals pitchers have walked 918 of 9,314 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% versus the heart of the order this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have walked 327 of 3,187 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
  • Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, D10
  • Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Blister, D15
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Royals vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.