- The Royals are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Guardians vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Royals TV Channel: BSGL | BSKC | FS1
The Cleveland Guardians (+115) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-135) on Wednesday, September 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Guardians are 80-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 76-64 ATS.
Guardians vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Ben Lively 11-8, 3.91 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 14-8, 3.11 ERA
Guardians vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 -105 | +115 |
| Royals | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -115 | -135 |
Guardians vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+24.00 Units / 600% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 37 of his last 48 games (+19.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+17.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+15.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 away games (+11.80 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 15 of his last 49 games (+21.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 35 games (+12.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Seth Lugo has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+10.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 41 games (+10.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 37% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 64 away games (+11.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 away games (+11.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 80 of their last 139 games (+11.22 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games (+7.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 36 games (+8.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 69 games at home (+8.89 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 69 games at home (+7.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 69 games at home (+6.55 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 70-69 against the Run Line (+4.15 Units / 2.4% ROI).
- 80-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.22 Units / 6.29% ROI
- 66-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -3.81% ROI
- 65-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.55 Units / -4.96% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 76-64 against the Run Line (+0.39 Units / 0.21% ROI).
- 75-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 3.41% ROI
- 64-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.6 Units / -8.29% ROI
- 70-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.05 Units / -0.68% ROI
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Paul DeJong (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| MJ Melendez (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Royals vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Tommy Pham (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Freddy Fermin (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Royals vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jose Ramirez (Cle) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Michael Massey (KC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Royals vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively (CLE) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Lively has an average spin rate of 1993.9 RPM on sliders since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 2424.1 — fourth Percentile.
Ben Lively has an average fastball velocity of just 90.4 MPH since last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 93.8 — fifth Percentile.
Ben Lively has an average spin rate of 1986.3 RPM on fastballs this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 2237.1 — fifth Percentile.
Ben Lively has averaged 90.1 MPH on fastballs this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 93.6 — third Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th worst)– ninth Percentile and just .167 vs left-handed batters in the 2022 season (10th best among qualified RPs)– 90th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has an average spin rate of 3213.4 RPM on curveballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 2531.0 — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (174/555) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total CB; League Avg: 14% — 93rd Percentile.
Seth Lugo has allowed a just .298 SLG versus the top of the order (second best)– 98th Percentile and .438 versus the bottom of the order this season (seventh worst among qualified SPs)– 12th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 26-13 (.667) after a home win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Guardians are just 2-51 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Guardians are just 4-51 (.073) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Guardians are 61-2 (.968) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 24-102 (.190) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 46-66 (.411) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Royals are just 25-42 (.373) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Royals are just 4-46 (.080) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians have a winning percentage of 63% at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Guardians hitters have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 31% over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
The Guardians have a winning percentage of 58% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Guardians have scored first in just 41% of their games against division opponents this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Royals won just 46% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
The Royals won only 41% of their home games in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Royals won only 35% of games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have won 48% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians have won 51% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Guardians pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Royals have won 39% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Royals pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kansas City Royals – No Injuries Reported
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
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