- The Guardians are -105 favorites vs the Twins
- Guardians vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Twins TV Channel: BSGL | BSNO
The Cleveland Guardians (+100) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-120) on Saturday, August 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Guardians are 67-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 57-58 ATS.
Guardians vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 1-4, 4.91 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 3-2, 3.90 ERA
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -105 | +100 |
| Twins | +1.5 -200 | U 8.5 -115 | -120 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 45 games (+40.50 Units / 90% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+15.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+12.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+10.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+23.50 Units / 147% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+12.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+10.05 Units / 44% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 116 games (+10.47 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 away games (+10.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 away games (+10.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 61 away games (+4.30 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.85 Units / 13% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 50 games at home (+17.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 49 games (+14.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 39 games (+10.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 95 games (+10.30 Units / 7% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 56-60 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -2% ROI).
- 67-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.47 Units / 7.02% ROI
- 57-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -1.17% ROI
- 53-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.6 Units / -7.55% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 57-58 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -1.95% ROI).
- 65-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 0.82% ROI
- 60-50 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.3 Units / 4.24% ROI
- 50-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.25 Units / -12.92% ROI
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +105 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has allowed an OPS of 1.421 (22 PA’s) this month (1 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: .754 — 0 Percentile.
16 of Gavin Williams’ 60 breaking pitch strikeouts (27%) have been backdoor since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 94th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed an OPS of 1.471 (18 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this month (1 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: .770 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (89/318) against Gavin Williams since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .405 (17 GB hits out of 42 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners on base this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .261 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 36% (61/171) against Simeon Woods Richardson this season — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 12th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (8/56) against Simeon Woods Richardson on changeups this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed an OPS of just .577 (158 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .755 — 93rd Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are 19-22 (.463) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Guardians are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .107.
The Guardians are 59-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .943.
The Guardians are 37-155 (.193) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .134.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 24-89 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Twins are 192-4 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Twins are 47-31 (.603) after a home win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Twins are 81-55 (.596) at home since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .276 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians hitters have just 2,160 strikeouts in 11,770 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of .776 (3,346 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .343 (2,072 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Twins have scored 1.89 runs per game (217/115) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.42.
Twins hitters have 180 extra-base hits out of 404 total hits (45%) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .198 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Guardians have allowed 0.84 runs per game (98/116) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .227 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .226 against Guardians pitchers this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 740 of 10,276 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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