- The Guardians are -105 favorites vs the Twins
- Guardians vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Guardians / Twins TV Channel: BSGL | BSNO
The Cleveland Guardians (-105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-115) on Sunday, August 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Guardians are 68-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 57-59 ATS.
Guardians vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee 9-4, 3.51 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: David Festa 2-2, 5.55 ERA
Guardians vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -105 | -105 |
| Twins | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -115 | -115 |
Guardians vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 46 games (+52.50 Units / 114% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+15.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 22 away games (+13.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+9.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 15 away games (+9.35 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+23.50 Units / 147% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+9.95 Units / 60% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 117 games (+11.47 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 26 away games (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 55 away games (+11.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 62 away games (+5.30 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.85 Units / 22% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 51 games at home (+15.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 40 games (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 58 of their last 96 games (+9.15 Units / 6% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 57-60 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -1.28% ROI).
- 68-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.47 Units / 7.63% ROI
- 57-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -2.01% ROI
- 54-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -6.71% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 57-59 against the Run Line (-3.85 Units / -2.62% ROI).
- 65-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.2 Units / 0.12% ROI
- 60-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.2 Units / 3.33% ROI
- 51-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.25 Units / -12.02% ROI
Twins vs Guardians Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Twins vs Guardians Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Andres Gimenez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Twins vs Guardians RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Guardians Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee (CLE) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| David Festa (MIN) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .436 against Tanner Bibee on the first pitch of at-bats this season — fourth worst among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP– third Percentile. Opponents batted just .268 (15-for-56) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — eighth best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .176 (47-for-267) against Tanner Bibee’s non-fastballs this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — 85th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .266 (29-for-109) against Tanner Bibee’s elevated fastball this season — 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .207 — 10th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has a strikeout rate of 33% (65 SO in 198 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 94th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Festa has a strikeout rate of 47% (9 SO in 19 PAs) this month (1 games) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
David Festa has allowed an OPS of just .387 (19 PA’s) this month (1 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: .739 — 96th Percentile.
David Festa has thrown his changeup 37% of the time (30/82) this month (1 games) — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (14/36) against David Festa this month (1 games) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Guardians are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .107.
The Guardians are 55-2 (.965) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .893.
The Guardians are 21-11 (.656) after a home win this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Guardians are 59-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .943.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Twins are 124-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 53-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .943.
The Twins are 24-89 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Twins are 59-20 (.747) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .622.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .277 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Guardians hitters have just 2,169 strikeouts in 11,802 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 3,119 strikeouts in 16,579 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 11 extra-base hits out of 14 total hits (79%) against LHP this month (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .340 (2,104 PA’s) at home this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Twins hitters are slugging .645 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .581.
The Twins have scored 1.87 runs per game (217/116) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.42.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians have allowed 0.84 runs per game (98/117) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .224 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .226 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have walked 162 of 2,486 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 741 of 10,308 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Byron Buxton (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, Day-To-Day
- Chris Paddack (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Groin, 10-Day IL
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Brent Headrick (Minnesota Twins): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Alex Kirilloff (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jose Miranda (Minnesota Twins): Back, 10-Day IL
- Kyle Farmer (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Kody Funderburk (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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