MLB Home Run Derby 2024: Odds & Prediction

The 2024 Home Run Derby, a significant event on the MLB calendar, will be held at Globe Life Field on Monday at 8 p.m. ET and televised on ESPN.

Adolis García, the Texas Rangers outfielder, is expected to be a strong contender and a fan favorite as he performs in his home stadium. 

However, New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso, a two-time derby champion, is the current betting favorite for this year’s event.

Here is a look at the latest baseball odds for all eight participants and a best bet for the 2024 Home Run Derby:

MLB Home Run Derby Odds

MLB Home Run Derby Prediction

Best bet: Gunnar Henderson (+575)

• Note: The betting odds have moved to +375 since making this bet on July 11

Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson became the first player to enter the Home Run Derby, announcing his intentions to do so while mic’d up during Sunday Night Baseball.

Henderson has earned the right to be here in his second MLB season. He leads all derby participants in home runs this year with 27, trailing only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani among all MLB players in 2024.

As a left-handed hitter, Henderson will have an advantage in a park that plays more favorably to the right side. The right-field wall is 326 feet away for the shortest path to clearing the fence.

Now that there is a pitch limit, it’s even more critical for batters to have stamina. I certainly like counting on the 23-year-old Henderson in that regard.

This year’s event won’t feature one-on-one showdowns until the semifinals, but I’m betting Henderson will crack the top four after the opening round. 

Then, let’s hope the bracket falls in his favor for this MLB betting prediction.

MLB Betting Insights: Home Run Derby

Here are the notable betting splits at the online sportsbook for this year’s Home Run Derby:

Most tickets:

• Gunnar Henderson 21%
• Pete Alonso 19.2%
• Bobby Witt Jr. 11.6%

Highest handle:

• Pete Alonso 29.2%
• Gunnar Henderson 17.8%
• Bobby Witt Jr. 12.3%

MLB Home Run Derby Time & TV Info

Date: Monday, July 15
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Who Won Last Year’s MLB Home Run Derby?

Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won the 2023 MLB Home Run Derby at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

List of MLB Home Run Derby Winners