- The Astros are -250 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Marlins / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | BSFL
The Miami Marlins (+180) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-225) on Wednesday, July 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Marlins are 32-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 46-45 ATS.
Marlins vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Bryan Hoeing 0-1, 2.02 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez 7-5, 3.83 ERA
Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -110 | O 8 -115 | +180 |
| Astros | -1.5 -110 | U 8 -105 | -225 |
Marlins vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 65.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 23 of his last 25 away games (+19.15 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 68% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 25 games (+17.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+14.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 73 games (+18.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 39 away games (+15.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 27 of their last 39 away games (+13.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 games (+3.40 Units / 17% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games (+15.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 33 games (+14.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.75 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.65 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 7 games at home (+7.50 Units / 64% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 41-50 against the Run Line (-23.61 Units / -19.49% ROI).
- 32-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -20 Units / -20.58% ROI
- 47-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 1.4% ROI
- 42-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.95 Units / -8.96% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 46-45 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 1.65% ROI).
- 47-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -7.26% ROI
- 35-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.45 Units / -22.6% ROI
- 53-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.55 Units / 14.41% ROI
Astros vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Astros vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Mauricio Dubon (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Bell (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Astros vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Hoeing (MIA) | 2.5 -105 | 2.5 -125 |
| Framber Valdez (HOU) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryan Hoeing has allowed an OPS of 1.070 (151 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters since the 2022 season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .715 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (21/64) against Bryan Hoeing this season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Bryan Hoeing has allowed an OPS of .812 (455 PA’s) since the 2022 season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .673 — second Percentile.
Bryan Hoeing has allowed a slugging percentage of .490 (202 Total Bases / 412 ABs) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .367 — first Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (167/270) against Framber Valdez this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of 75% (49/65) against Framber Valdez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .300 (186 Total Bases / 619 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .386 — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez has thrown inside pitches 41% of the time (556/1,347) this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Marlins are just 27-20 (.574) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.
The Marlins are just 16-9 (.640) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Marlins are just 17-11 (.607) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .801.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Astros are just 0-33 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .057.
The Astros are 173-25 (.874) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Astros are 243-172 (.586) since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 105-67 (.610) after a loss since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .490.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .202 (1,688 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .587 (1,064 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .402 (1,688 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 814 strikeouts in 4,634 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.67 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Astros hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters are slugging .498 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .370.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Marlins have won just 14% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 388.3 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.4
Astros pitchers have walked 331 of 3,440 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Grae Kessinger (Houston Astros): Hamstring, Day-To-Day
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Abreu (Houston Astros): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros): Finger, 7-Day IL
- Shawn Dubin (Houston Astros): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
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