- The Mets are -200 favorites vs the Marlins
- Marlins vs Mets Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Marlins / Mets TV Channel: Roku
The Miami Marlins (+165) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-200) on Sunday, August 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Marlins are 45-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 60-63 ATS.
Marlins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Valente Bellozo 2-1, 2.28 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Paul Blackburn 5-3, 4.44 ERA
Marlins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Marlins | +1.5 -130 | O 8.5 -115 | +165 |
| Mets | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -105 | -200 |
Marlins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 59.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 17 of his last 41 games (+46.00 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 33 games (+22.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 41 games (+20.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+19.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 38 games (+36.50 Units / 96% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 30 games (+16.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+13.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 34 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+9.90 Units / 38% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 31 games (+18.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 57 away games (+15.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 55 of their last 96 games (+14.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 games (+10.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+6.90 Units / 22% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 31 games at home (+16.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 24 games at home (+11.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 26 games at home (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+11.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 64 games (+11.05 Units / 13% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 57-66 against the Run Line (-27.61 Units / -17.21% ROI).
- 45-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.15 Units / -14.05% ROI
- 68-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.6 Units / 9.27% ROI
- 51-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.65 Units / -16.81% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 60-63 against the Run Line (-6.45 Units / -4.14% ROI).
- 64-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -1.25% ROI
- 62-55 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.3 Units / 0.97% ROI
- 55-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.2 Units / -9.26% ROI
Mets vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Mets vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Mets vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Blackburn (NYM) | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Valente Bellozo (MIA) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 18% (9/50) against Valente Bellozo this month (3 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 14% (3/22) against Valente Bellozo in his last two starts — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 16% (5/31) against Valente Bellozo this month (3 games) — lowest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 40% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 18% (7/39) against Valente Bellozo in his last two starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (60/185) against Paul Blackburn on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 42% of Paul Blackburn’s pitches (30/71) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 60% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (38/117) against Paul Blackburn on sliders since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Paul Blackburn has a strike rate of just 59% (504/853) in two strike counts since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .808.
The Marlins are just 15-16 (.484) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .759.
The Marlins are just 25-12 (.676) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Marlins are just 13-17 (.433) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .647.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 123-29 (.809) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
The Mets are 13-7 (.650) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 6-49 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Mets are just 13-15 (.464) after a home loss this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .297 (4,159 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .630 (1,454 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .286 (1,454 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have chased 34% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters are slugging .446 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Mets won only 40% of their road games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Mets are batting .180 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .773 (1,238 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 518.2 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 465.5
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 4.96 (588.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 240 of 2,512 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 100 of 1,100 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets vs. Marlins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Drew Smith (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Grant Hartwig (New York Mets): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Tim Locastro (New York Mets): Undisclosed, 60-Day IL
- Starling Marte (New York Mets): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Brooks Raley (New York Mets): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (New York Mets): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
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