- The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Marlins
- Mets vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Mets / Marlins TV Channel: SNY | BSFL
The New York Mets (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Monday, July 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Mets are 50-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-54 ATS.
Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 4-0, 3.12 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Yonny Chirinos 0-1, 6.01 ERA
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mets | -1.5 +110 | O 8.5 -110 | -145 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -135 | U 8.5 -110 | +120 |
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 61.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+22.20 Units / 202% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 89 games (+17.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games (+10.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 away games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 52 games at home (+16.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+14.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 94 games (+12.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 games at home (+3.80 Units / 10% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 46-52 against the Run Line (-8.9 Units / -7.1% ROI).
- 50-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -1.87% ROI
- 51-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.6 Units / 4.31% ROI
- 42-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.35 Units / -12.77% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 45-54 against the Run Line (-24.86 Units / -18.9% ROI).
- 35-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.05 Units / -20.01% ROI
- 52-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 2.84% ROI
- 45-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.35 Units / -10.45% ROI
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Peterson (NYM) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
| Yonny Chirinos (MIA) | 4.5 +140 | 4.5 -185 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 61% (2,076/3,417) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 55% (84/153) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (31/51) against David Peterson this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
David Peterson has walked 91 of 848 right-handed batters (11%) since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yonny Chirinos has allowed an OPS of .847 (484 PA’s) since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .724 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 55% (41/74) against Yonny Chirinos on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .459 (34-for-74) against Yonny Chirinos on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .343 — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .286 (125-for-437) against Yonny Chirinos since last season — tied for 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .247 — sixth Percentile.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Mets are 6-37 (.140) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Mets are just 34-11 (.756) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Mets are just 38-6 (.864) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Mets are 14-168 (.077) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Marlins are just 2-4 (.333) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Marlins are just 10-12 (.455) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .755.
The Marlins are just 17-9 (.654) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Marlins are just 8-13 (.381) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are batting .264 on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Mets hitters are slugging .447 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .556 (2,030 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Mets won only 40% of their road games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .205 (1,855 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,453 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .280 (1,176 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 373 of 3,761 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Mets pitchers since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 223 of 2,292 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have an ERA of 4.77 (1085.2 IP) on the road since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Mets Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Josh Simpson (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Xavier Edwards (Miami Marlins): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Huascar Brazoban (Miami Marlins): Personal, Out
- Victor Mesa (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Edward Cabrera (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- JT Chargois (Miami Marlins): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
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