- The Braves are -275 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Braves Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Braves TV Channel: MASN | BSSE
The Washington Nationals (+225) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-275) on Friday, August 23, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Nationals are 58-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 56-71 ATS.
Nationals vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 7-11, 4.62 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 14-3, 2.64 ERA
Nationals vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 +105 | O 7.5 -110 | +225 |
| Braves | -1.5 -130 | U 7.5 -110 | -275 |
Nationals vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 71.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 45 games (+16.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 41 games (+16.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+15.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.65 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+20.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ramon Laureano has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 games (+20.20 Units / 135% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+19.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+18.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 50 games (+15.70 Units / 21% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 69 of their last 120 games (+11.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 54 games (+10.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 120 games (+6.65 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 57% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 113 games (+30.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 26 games (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 72-56 against the Run Line (+7.93 Units / 4.73% ROI).
- 58-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.4 Units / 2.5% ROI
- 63-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -0.93% ROI
- 59-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.17 Units / -7.87% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 56-71 against the Run Line (-18.45 Units / -12.14% ROI).
- 68-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.4 Units / -10.44% ROI
- 47-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -34.55 Units / -24.94% ROI
- 75-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +23.05 Units / 16.35% ROI
Braves vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Travis D'Arnaud (ATL) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ramon Laureano (ATL) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Braves vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Urshela (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Travis D'Arnaud (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Braves vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jorge Soler (ATL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Travis D'Arnaud (ATL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Whit Merrifield (ATL) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Braves vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Sale (ATL) | 7.5 -125 | 7.5 -105 |
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (269/942) against MacKenzie Gore since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (210/746) against MacKenzie Gore since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a BABIP of .371 this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 0 Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has an ERA of 6.15 (115.2 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 3.99 — second Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
27 of Chris Sale’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed an OPS of just .461 (207 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .672 — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has allowed a slugging percentage of just .228 (43 Total Bases / 189 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .384 — 100th Percentile.
Chris Sale has a strikeout rate of 48% (45 SO in 93 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are 10-2 (.833) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 34-54 (.386) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 69-113 (.379) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .510.
The Nationals are just 55-221 (.199) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves are just 4-24 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Braves are 85-39 (.685) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Braves are 140-82 (.631) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Braves are 78-56 (.582) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .957 (2,003 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.088.
Nationals hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 36% against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Nationals hitters have 99 extra-base hits out of 322 total hits (just 31%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals have scored first in just 39% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves have barrels in 7% of PA’s since last season (806/10,989) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
The Braves have an average Exit Velocity of 90.6 MPH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
The Braves have barrels in 8% of PA’s in the 2023 season (512/6,249) — best in MLB; League Avg: 5%.
Braves hitters are slugging .456 since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Braves vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jimmy Herget (Atlanta Braves): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tyler Matzek (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Michael Harris (Atlanta Braves): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Fried (Atlanta Braves): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Luplow (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Austin Riley (Atlanta Braves): Personal, Paternity
- Ray Kerr (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ozzie Albies (Atlanta Braves): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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