- The Cardinals are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Cardinals TV Channel: MAS2 | BSMW
The Washington Nationals (+125) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-150) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis, MO.
This season, the Nationals are 49-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 52-52 ATS.
Nationals vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Davidjohn Herz 1-4, 4.91 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas 8-8, 5.04 ERA
Nationals vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -110 | +125 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -110 | -150 |
Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+16.55 Units / 71% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 18 games (+15.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- Trey Lipscomb has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+12.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+11.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.10 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 47 games (+31.20 Units / 66% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the RBIs Over in 20 of his last 30 games (+25.45 Units / 85% ROI)
- Alec Burleson has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 36 games (+15.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+13.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+12.10 Units / 51% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 30 away games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 97 games (+11.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 97 games (+10.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 52 away games (+2.95 Units / 5% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 43 games (+4.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 39 games (+0.40 Units / 1% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 59-46 against the Run Line (+6.58 Units / 4.79% ROI).
- 49-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.65 Units / 7.85% ROI
- 50-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.8 Units / -4.19% ROI
- 50-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.72 Units / -4.92% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 52-52 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -2.18% ROI).
- 53-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.4 Units / -6.58% ROI
- 48-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.55 Units / -7.53% ROI
- 51-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.85 Units / -1.63% ROI
Cardinals vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Alec Burleson (STL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Cardinals vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Willson Contreras (STL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Juan Yepez (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Cardinals vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas (STL) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
| DJ Herz (WAS) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Davidjohn Herz has induced opposing hitters to ground into 2 double plays in 5 opportunities (40%) this month (3 games) — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 12% (5/40) against Davidjohn Herz this month (3 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 35% (51/145) against Davidjohn Herz this month (3 games) — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 94th Percentile.
Davidjohn Herz has thrown his changeup 34% of the time (68/200) against right-handed batters this month (3 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total CH; League Avg: 13% — 96th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Miles Mikolas has allowed a slugging percentage of .570 (134 Total Bases / 235 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .354 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .322 (58-for-180) against Miles Mikolas when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .315 (74-for-235) against Miles Mikolas’ non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — first Percentile.
Miles Mikolas has allowed an OPS of .950 (189 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .662 — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 53-209 (.202) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Nationals are just 31-50 (.383) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cardinals are just 23-35 (.397) after a win as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
The Cardinals are 43-2 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Cardinals are just 8-116 (.065) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Cardinals are just 23-29 (.442) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .956 (1,816 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.088.
The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .442.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .337 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Nationals hitters have 92 extra-base hits out of 299 total hits (just 31%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .633 (1,148 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Cardinals hitters are slugging just .374 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .322 (12,188 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of just .291 (1,148 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Keynan Middleton (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Zack Thompson (St. Louis Cardinals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Drew Rom (St. Louis Cardinals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Steven Matz (St. Louis Cardinals): Back, 60-Day IL
- Riley O’Brien (St. Louis Cardinals): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Tommy Edman (St. Louis Cardinals): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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