- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Nationals / Phillies TV Channel: MAS2 | NSPA
The Washington Nationals (+135) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-160) on Sunday, August 18, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Nationals are 55-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 62-61 ATS.
Nationals vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 9-10, 3.74 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker 3-4, 5.79 ERA
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -150 | O 9.5 -120 | +135 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 +100 | -160 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+15.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 31 games (+12.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+11.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jacob Young has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+10.00 Units / 167% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+9.00 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+11.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+8.75 Units / 70% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+10.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 66 of their last 116 games (+9.15 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 39 away games (+7.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 116 games (+4.95 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 10 away games (+2.05 Units / 19% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 55 games at home (+17.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 53 games at home (+16.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 54 games at home (+9.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games at home (+9.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.90 Units / 24% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 69-55 against the Run Line (+5.23 Units / 3.2% ROI).
- 55-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 1.31% ROI
- 61-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -0.81% ROI
- 57-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.97 Units / -7.97% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 62-61 against the Run Line (-1.45 Units / -0.97% ROI).
- 73-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -0.18% ROI
- 57-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -7.81% ROI
- 61-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -1.48% ROI
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Edmundo Sosa (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jacob Young (WAS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -150 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (168/482) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 28% of the time (271/979) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 95th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (221/586) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (452/1,285) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 42% of Taijuan Walker’s pitches (390/926) this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 51% (130/254) against Taijuan Walker when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.
Taijuan Walker has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.0 MPH this season (174 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 89.0
Hitters have chased just 172 of Taijuan Walker’s 834 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 21%) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
The Nationals are just 33-53 (.384) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 55-220 (.200) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.
The Nationals are just 68-112 (.378) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 6-2 (.750) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Phillies are 17-11 (.607) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .425.
The Phillies are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 63-10 (.863) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .955 (1,977 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.089.
The Nationals are just 5-18 (.217) against the run line (-43.9% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .442.
Nationals hitters have just 604 strikeouts in 3,197 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters are slugging just .351 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .348 (1,516 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Phillies are batting .274 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Phillies are batting .261 with two outs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (5,134 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 61% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 63% of their games this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .238 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jake Alu (Washington Nationals): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Joey Gallo (Washington Nationals): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Josiah Gray (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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