- The Pirates are -120 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Nationals / Pirates TV Channel: MAS2 | SNPT
The Washington Nationals (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on Saturday, September 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Nationals are 62-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 77-63 ATS.
Nationals vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Davidjohn Herz 2-7, 4.08 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-0, 26.99 ERA
Nationals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -225 | O 8.5 -115 | +100 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -105 | -120 |
Nationals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 away games (+15.30 Units / 102% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Jacob Young has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 36 games (+10.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+21.40 Units / 357% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+16.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.15 Units / 139% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 24 games (+10.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 41 games (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 46 away games (+10.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 132 games (+9.80 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 68 away games (+7.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 59 of their last 101 games (+15.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games (+11.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games at home (+9.80 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games at home (+8.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.95 Units / 46% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 78-62 against the Run Line (+5.88 Units / 3.2% ROI).
- 62-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 1.01% ROI
- 66-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -4.64% ROI
- 67-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.47 Units / -4.17% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 77-63 against the Run Line (+10.51 Units / 5.79% ROI).
- 66-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -5.47% ROI
- 68-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -3.76% ROI
- 67-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.82 Units / -4.46% ROI
Pirates vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Pirates vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Pirates vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| DJ Herz (WAS) | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -110 |
| Luis Ortiz (PIT) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Davidjohn Herz has not allowed a home run in any of the last 21.0 innings he’s appeared — Cionel Perez has the longest active streak at 81.1.
Davidjohn Herz has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 15.0 innings pitched — Framber Valdez has the longest active streak at 17.0.
Mitchell Parker has a strike rate of 68% (562/822) when ahead in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 98th Percentile.
Mitchell Parker has a strikeout rate of just 17% (23 SO in 138 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 10th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .553 (119 Total Bases / 215 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .385 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of .908 (238 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .675 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .354 (237 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .302 (65-for-215) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — third Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .580.
The Nationals are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .588.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 56-227 (.198) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates are just 17-29 (.370) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 54-6 (.900) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Pirates are just 22-67 (.247) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .304.
The Pirates are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 646 strikeouts in 3,420 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .303 (1,521 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .328.
Nationals hitters have just 1,043 strikeouts in 5,367 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals are 9-4 (.692) against the run line (66.2% ROI) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .438.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .495 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Pirates hitters have 444 strikeouts in 1,313 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .300 (3,873 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in late innings since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Pirates have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,618 of 17,839 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Pirates pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Pirates vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
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