- The Orioles are -125 favorites vs the Guardians
- Orioles vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Orioles / Guardians TV Channel: FOX
The Baltimore Orioles (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Saturday, August 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Orioles are 65-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 55-54 ATS.
Orioles vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Zach Eflin 6-7, 4.10 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Joey Cantillo 0-0, 8.11 ERA
Orioles vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +145 | O 8.5 -110 | -115 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | U 8.5 -110 | -105 |
Orioles vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 55.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 18 of his last 49 games (+34.50 Units / 70% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+20.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 17 games (+18.90 Units / 96% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+12.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 42 games (+11.80 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 games at home (+55.50 Units / 278% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+14.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+12.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.20 Units / 21% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+15.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 102 games (+11.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 96 games (+11.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 away games (+6.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 33 away games (+4.85 Units / 12% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 109 games (+17.87 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 64 of their last 109 games (+14.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+11.35 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 95 games (+10.95 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 46 games at home (+8.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 58-53 against the Run Line (+11.7 Units / 9.04% ROI).
- 65-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.95 Units / 1.22% ROI
- 61-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +18.55 Units / 15.41% ROI
- 39-61 when betting on the total runs Under for -28.5 Units / -23.43% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 55-54 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 3.51% ROI).
- 67-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.87 Units / 12.6% ROI
- 52-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.35 Units / -3.61% ROI
- 51-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.05 Units / -5.07% ROI
Guardians vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Guardians vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| David Fry (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Guardians vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Eflin (BAL) | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
| Joey Cantillo (CLE) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Eflin has walked 1 of 180 batters (1%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .379 (11-for-29) against Zach Eflin with two-strikes in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .157 — first Percentile.
Zach Eflin has walked 5 of 276 right-handed batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Zach Eflin has allowed a slugging percentage of .465 (53 Total Bases / 114 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .301 — third Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joey Cantillo has limited playing time.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Orioles are 57-45 (.559) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Orioles are 32-24 (.571) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Orioles are 53-31 (.631) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .482.
The Orioles are 165-107 (.607) since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Guardians are 19-17 (.528) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Guardians are 35-15 (.700) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Guardians are 59-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Guardians are 21-10 (.677) after a home win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .522.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .793 (1,332 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Orioles hitters are slugging .453 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters are slugging .298 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Guardians have an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
Guardians hitters have just 3,057 strikeouts in 16,286 PA’s (19%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .206 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Orioles have won 46% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles pitchers have won 39% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Orioles pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 52 double plays in 705 opportunities (7%) this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .188 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Guardians pitchers have won 47% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Guardians have allowed 0.78 runs per game (85/109) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Heasley (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Danny Coulombe (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tyler Wells (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jorge Mateo (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Day-To-Day
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