- The Orioles are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Orioles vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Orioles / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | MASN | MLBN
The Baltimore Orioles (-135) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+115) on Sunday, August 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Orioles are 66-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 55-55 ATS.
Orioles vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Orioles starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes 11-4, 2.47 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 1-3, 3.73 ERA
Orioles vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Orioles | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -105 | -135 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 -115 | +115 |
Orioles vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 62.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Santander has hit the Home Runs Over in 18 of his last 50 games (+33.50 Units / 67% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+21.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 18 games (+20.00 Units / 97% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+13.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.65 Units / 58% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 21 games at home (+54.50 Units / 260% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+13.30 Units / 19% ROI)
- Daniel Schneemann has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 16% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games (+16.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 103 games (+13.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 97 games (+12.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 away games (+7.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 34 away games (+5.90 Units / 14% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 110 games (+16.82 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 65 of their last 110 games (+15.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 46 games at home (+12.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 96 games (+9.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 59-53 against the Run Line (+13.15 Units / 10.08% ROI).
- 66-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.95 Units / 1.83% ROI
- 62-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +19.55 Units / 16.09% ROI
- 39-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -29.6 Units / -24.11% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 55-55 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 2.24% ROI).
- 67-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.82 Units / 11.77% ROI
- 53-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -2.75% ROI
- 51-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.15 Units / -5.94% ROI
Guardians vs Orioles Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Guardians vs Orioles Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Orioles RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Orioles Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Corbin Burnes (BAL) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 60% (106/176) against Corbin Burnes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 71% of the time (115/163) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 65% of the time (430/661) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 72% of the time (118/163) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has pitched 9.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — the longest active streak is 22.2.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (85/306) against Gavin Williams since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
The last hit on a Gavin Williams curveball was July 13rd. Hitters are 0 for their last 20 in ABs ending on his curveball. — the longest active streak is 24.
Gavin Williams has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 9.2 innings pitched — Carlos Estevez has the longest active streak at 26.1.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Orioles are 57-45 (.559) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Orioles are 32-24 (.571) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Orioles are 100-65 (.606) after a win since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Orioles are 89-16 (.848) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Guardians are 35-16 (.686) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Guardians are 19-17 (.528) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Guardians are 55-1 (.982) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .894.
The Guardians are 50-1 (.980) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging .455 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .798 (1,348 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 2,118 strikeouts in 11,583 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Guardians are batting just .281 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Guardians hitters have put 41% of balls in play to the right side of the field since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles have won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .207 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Orioles pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 263 of 3,899 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .192 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Guardians have allowed 0.81 runs per game (89/110) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .224 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Guardians pitchers have won 53% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians vs. Orioles Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Ortiz (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Hentges (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Shane Bieber (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Stephan (Cleveland Guardians): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Heasley (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Danny Coulombe (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tyler Wells (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jorge Mateo (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Day-To-Day
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