- The Padres are -210 favorites vs the Marlins
- Padres vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Padres / Marlins TV Channel: BSFL | PDTV
The San Diego Padres (-210) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+170) on Sunday, August 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Padres are 66-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 55-63 ATS.
Padres vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 11-8, 3.41 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Max Meyer 2-2, 5.16 ERA
Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 -125 | O 7.5 -115 | -210 |
| Marlins | +1.5 +105 | U 7.5 -105 | +170 |
Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 65.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 47 games (+54.10 Units / 115% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+13.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+12.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+11.95 Units / 66% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 away games (+11.60 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 14 of his last 36 games (+36.25 Units / 101% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 35 games (+19.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 36 games (+18.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 32 games (+17.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+16.70 Units / 51% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 59 away games (+17.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 41 games (+16.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+9.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.85 Units / 36% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 43 of their last 62 games at home (+25.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 26 games (+15.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+10.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games at home (+8.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.85 Units / 30% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 61-57 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 4.14% ROI).
- 66-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.5 Units / 2.91% ROI
- 63-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.25 Units / 4.07% ROI
- 53-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.85 Units / -12.87% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 55-63 against the Run Line (-25.91 Units / -16.76% ROI).
- 43-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.6 Units / -14.98% ROI
- 65-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.8 Units / 9.05% ROI
- 49-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -21.35 Units / -16.52% ROI
Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| David Peralta (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| David Peralta (SD) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dylan Cease (SD) | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -115 |
| Max Meyer (MIA) | 3.5 +120 | 3.5 -155 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dylan Cease has allowed an OBP of just .256 (539 PAs) this season — fifth best among qualified SPs– 94th Percentile. He allowed an OBP of .332 (783 PAs) last season — third worst among qualified SPs– sixth Percentile.
Dylan Cease has walked 84 of 790 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .148 (27-for-183) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.
Dylan Cease has a strikeout rate of 38% (80 SO in 211 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Max Meyer has allowed a slugging percentage of .857 (18 Total Bases / 21 ABs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .256 — first Percentile.
Max Meyer has allowed an OPS of 1.221 (22 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .483 — first Percentile.
Max Meyer has allowed an OBP of .556 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: .299 — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .467 (7-for-15) against Max Meyer this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are 110-19 (.853) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Padres are 34-23 (.596) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .478.
The Padres are 48-6 (.889) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Padres are just 14-16 (.467) after a home loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Marlins are just 12-17 (.414) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .702.
The Marlins are just 3-27 (.100) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Marlins are just 14-14 (.500) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .759.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .281 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have just 559 strikeouts in 3,143 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .207 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .169.
Padres hitters have just 788 strikeouts in 4,459 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .626 (1,408 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .720.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .297 (4,113 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.0 MPH since last season (6,797 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Opponents have a miss rate of 32% against Padres pitchers this month (8 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 518.2 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 465.5
Marlins pitchers have walked 15 of 116 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.68 runs per game (352/62) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.42.
Marlins pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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