- The Padres are -130 favorites vs the Marlins
- Padres vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Padres / Marlins TV Channel: BSFL | PDTV | MLBN
The San Diego Padres (-130) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+110) on Friday, August 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Padres are 64-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 54-62 ATS.
Padres vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Padres starting pitcher: Martin Perez 2-5, 4.89 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 2-3, 6.01 ERA
Padres vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -105 | -130 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -160 | U 8 -115 | +110 |
Padres vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB game with 58.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 45 games (+40.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+15.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+15.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.95 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 30 of his last 40 games (+12.30 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 12 of his last 34 games (+27.85 Units / 82% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 33 games (+19.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 34 games (+18.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 30 games (+18.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+17.70 Units / 35% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 57 away games (+17.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 39 games (+14.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+8.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.85 Units / 40% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 60 games at home (+24.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 24 games (+13.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+8.15 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 60-56 against the Run Line (+6.05 Units / 4.17% ROI).
- 64-52 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 1.65% ROI
- 62-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.25 Units / 3.36% ROI
- 53-62 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.85 Units / -12.3% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 54-62 against the Run Line (-25.46 Units / -16.74% ROI).
- 43-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.6 Units / -13.58% ROI
- 64-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.8 Units / 8.43% ROI
- 49-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.35 Units / -16% ROI
Marlins vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Emmanuel Rivera (MIA) | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -1600 |
Marlins vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Marlins vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| David Peralta (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Perez (SD) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 49% of the time (809/1,664) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .398 (33-for-83) against Martin Perez when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .260 — first Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed an OPS of 1.203 (90 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .752 — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .759 (63 Total Bases / 83 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: .428 — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 127 of 940 batters (14%) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 34 of 233 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 28 of 215 batters (13%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 94 of 649 batters (14%) since last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Padres are 109-19 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Padres are 33-23 (.589) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Padres are 21-13 (.618) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .467.
The Padres are 37-25 (.597) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Marlins are just 14-14 (.500) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .761.
The Marlins are just 3-4 (.429) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .806.
The Marlins are just 3-27 (.100) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Marlins are just 12-16 (.429) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .702.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have just 229 strikeouts in 1,316 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Padres are batting .281 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have just 774 strikeouts in 4,368 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 60 strikeouts in 410 PA’s (15%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .609 (1,369 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .687.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 38% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have chased 33% of pitches out of the zone against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Marlins hitters have drawn 178 walks in 2,916 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.1 MPH since last season (6,745 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Marlins pitchers this season traveled 518.2 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 465.5
Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 9% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Peyton Burdick (Miami Marlins): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Eury Perez (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dane Myers (Miami Marlins): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Sixto Sanchez (Miami Marlins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Ryan Weathers (Miami Marlins): Finger, 60-Day IL
- Sandy Alcantara (Miami Marlins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins): Back, 60-Day IL
- Braxton Garrett (Miami Marlins): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Glenn Otto (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Reiss Knehr (San Diego Padres): Elbow, Out
- Drew Carlton (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Yu Darvish (San Diego Padres): Personal, Out
- Rougned Odor (San Diego Padres): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Luis Patino (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tom Cosgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Tucupita Marcano (San Diego Padres): Suspension, Suspension
- Joe Musgrove (San Diego Padres): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Fernando Tatis (San Diego Padres): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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