- The Phillies are -110 favorites vs the Mets
- Phillies vs Mets Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Phillies / Mets TV Channel: FS1
The Philadelphia Phillies (-110) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-110) on Tuesday, October 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Phillies are 96-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 87-80 ATS.
Phillies vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 14-8, 3.59 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 12-6, 3.49 ERA
Phillies vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +165 | O 7 +100 | -110 |
| Mets | +1.5 -200 | U 7 -120 | -110 |
Phillies vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 51.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+12.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 26 games (+11.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 games (+10.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+9.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 17 away games (+8.45 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luisangel Acuna has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games at home (+29.00 Units / 483% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 39 games (+15.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 44 games (+12.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 away games (+12.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 105 games (+11.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 69 away games (+10.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 149 games (+2.73 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 games (+2.00 Units / 4% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 68 of their last 108 games (+22.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 63 of their last 109 games (+17.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 48 games at home (+14.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+11.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 79-85 against the Run Line (-9.9 Units / -4.95% ROI).
- 96-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.45 Units / -0.94% ROI
- 80-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -2.35% ROI
- 76-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.5 Units / -6.94% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 87-80 against the Run Line (+4.1 Units / 1.92% ROI).
- 92-75 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.9 Units / 4.2% ROI
- 85-77 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 77-85 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.15 Units / -8.32% ROI
Mets vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mets vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea (NYM) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .323 (72-for-223) against Aaron Nola versus the bottom of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .223 — first Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OPS of .880 (236 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .623 — first Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (207/613) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 531 of Aaron Nola’s 1,157 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 46%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has walked 29 of 288 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Sean Manaea has walked 19 of 142 batters (13%) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .202 (51-for-253) against Sean Manaea when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 88th Percentile.
Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 51% of the time (321/632) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Phillies are 232-64 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .720.
The Phillies are 92-172 (.348) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Phillies are 12-120 (.091) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are just 7-13 (.350) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mets are 9-61 (.129) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Mets are 12-52 (.188) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Mets are just 66-14 (.825) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Mets are 17-8 (.680) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .307 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .342 (1,915 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies are batting .290 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .746 (8,589 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets are 9-61 (.129) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .329 (1,651 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Mets have been successful on 56% of their hit & run attempts since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters are slugging .440 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 444 of 6,050 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 586 of 6,098 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 121 of 1,445 batters (8%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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