- The Phillies are -115 favorites vs the Twins
- Phillies vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | NSPA | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-105) on Monday, July 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Phillies are 63-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 46-52 ATS.
Phillies vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 10-4, 2.79 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 8-5, 4.14 ERA
Phillies vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -105 | -115 |
| Twins | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -115 | -105 |
Phillies vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 58.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.75 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.95 Units / 41% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 82 games (+22.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 84 games (+22.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 81 games (+15.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 82 games (+13.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 83 games (+11.30 Units / 8% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games at home (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+6.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 games (+6.00 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 52-47 against the Run Line (+4.35 Units / 3.66% ROI).
- 63-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.85 Units / 4.79% ROI
- 44-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -10.54% ROI
- 50-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.39% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 46-52 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -5.48% ROI).
- 54-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -2.13% ROI
- 49-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -0.23% ROI
- 45-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -8.55% ROI
Twins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Twins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Twins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Twins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -150 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (61/103) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (227/377) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .151 (8-for-53) against Ranger Suarez’s elevated fastball this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .209 — 89th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .181 (39 Total Bases / 215 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .257 — 94th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (31/103) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — third Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .613 (46 Total Bases / 75 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .355 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .153 (24-for-157) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 98th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has a strikeout rate of 42% (48 SO in 113 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 86th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Phillies are 12-2 (.857) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .547.
The Phillies are 15-10 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Phillies are 53-6 (.898) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Phillies are 4-27 (.129) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .056.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Twins are 15-28 (.349) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Twins are 54-17 (.761) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .621.
The Twins are 43-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .944.
The Twins are 32-22 (.593) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .312 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Phillies are batting .312 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .340 (1,294 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Phillies are batting .262 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting .277 against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .787 (1,191 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Twins hitters are slugging .427 against RHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Twins have scored 163 runs in late innings this season — most in MLB.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .177 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 28% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have walked 690 of 9,662 batters (7%) since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 247 of 3,634 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 1,158 of 15,704 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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