- The Brewers are -150 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Brewers Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Pirates / Brewers TV Channel: BSWI | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-150) on Wednesday, July 10, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Pirates are 44-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 47-45 ATS.
Pirates vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Martin Perez 1-4, 4.77 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Tobias Myers 5-3, 3.56 ERA
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | O 9 -120 | +125 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +135 | U 9 +100 | -150 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 12 games at home (+16.00 Units / 133% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 60% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+15.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 47 games (+11.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 47 games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 52 games (+9.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 29 games at home (+12.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+10.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 88 games (+10.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 92 games (+9.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+7.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 49-42 against the Run Line (+4.11 Units / 3.45% ROI).
- 44-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -4.39% ROI
- 42-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.1 Units / -7.04% ROI
- 45-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.27 Units / -0.27% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 47-45 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -0.75% ROI).
- 53-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.35 Units / 9.88% ROI
- 49-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.9 Units / 7.86% ROI
- 38-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.9 Units / -15.61% ROI
Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tobias Myers (MIL) | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Martin Perez (PIT) | 3.5 -145 | 3.5 +110 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .398 (41-for-103) against Martin Perez versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .252 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 7% (3/42) against Martin Perez this month (1 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .754 (49 Total Bases / 65 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .433 — first Percentile.
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 48% of the time (732/1,510) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting .458 (11-for-24) against Tobias Myers — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .240 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 58% (31/53) against Tobias Myers on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 58% (31/53) against Tobias Myers on the first pitch of at-bats — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Tobias Myers has allowed an OPS of 1.286 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .633 — first Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are 15-9 (.625) after a loss as underdogs this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .441.
The Pirates are just 43-58 (.426) after a home win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Pirates are just 135-30 (.818) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Pirates are just 3-26 (.103) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 35-15 (.700) after a home loss since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Brewers are 12-5 (.706) after a home loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .544.
The Brewers are 28-21 (.571) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Brewers are 12-26 (.316) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .199.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .301 (4,782 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates hitters have 32 extra-base hits out of 128 total hits (just 25%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters have 57 strikeouts in 150 PA’s (38%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 705 strikeouts in 2,899 PA’s (24%) against LHP since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
10% of Brewers’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,517/15,734 PA’s) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.02 pitches per plate appearance since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .335 (2,644 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,457 of 15,967 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% with runners in scoring position this month (8 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 2.72 (109.0 IP) over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.34.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 37% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.78 (1142.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.77 (2256.1 IP) since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.24.
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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