- The Pirates are -130 favorites vs the Brewers
- Pirates vs Brewers Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Brewers TV Channel: BSWI | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+105) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Pirates are 44-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 48-45 ATS.
Pirates vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 5-0, 2.13 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 2-6, 5.19 ERA
Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +140 | O 7.5 -110 | -125 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -110 | +105 |
Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 12 games at home (+16.00 Units / 133% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 60% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.50 Units / 49% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 81 games (+16.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 48 games (+10.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 53 games (+7.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.25 Units / 22% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 30 games at home (+13.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+11.80 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 89 games (+11.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 49-43 against the Run Line (+2.66 Units / 2.21% ROI).
- 44-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -5.28% ROI
- 43-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -5.98% ROI
- 45-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.32 Units / -1.31% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 48-45 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.29% ROI).
- 54-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.35 Units / 10.6% ROI
- 50-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.9 Units / 8.75% ROI
- 38-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.95 Units / -16.47% ROI
Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Josh Palacios (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 7.5 -135 | 7.5 +105 |
| Aaron Civale (MIL) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (17/29) against Paul Skenes in his last two starts — 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has not allowed a walk in his last 70 PAs against a RHH dating back to June 5th — Jon Gray has the longest active streak at 149.
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 53% (8 SO in 15 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has thrown off-speed pitches 86% of the time (43/50) on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .540 (81 Total Bases / 150 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (91/275) against Aaron Civale this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Aaron Civale has located his pitches away 58% of the time (188/324) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has located his pitches away 58% of the time (175/303) when behind in the count this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Pirates are just 3-27 (.100) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Pirates are just 16-27 (.372) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 16-27 (.372) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Pirates are 58-13 (.817) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Brewers are 36-15 (.706) after a home loss since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Brewers are 31-65 (.323) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Brewers are 13-5 (.722) after a home loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Brewers are 108-76 (.587) after a loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Pirates hitters have 415 strikeouts in 1,227 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 57 strikeouts in 150 PA’s (38%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have 228 extra-base hits out of 820 total hits (just 28%) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Brewers hitters have chased 12% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 16%.
The Brewers are batting just .237 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Brewers hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,463 of 16,010 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have 156 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 3rd most in MLB.
Pirates pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 50% of their games since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 132 times since the 2022 season — tied for 4th fewest in MLB.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 36% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.78 (1142.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.36.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Garrett Mitchell (Milwaukee Brewers): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Wrist, 7-Day IL
- Jeferson Quero (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Clarke (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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