- The Guardians are -150 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+125) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-150) on Sunday, September 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Pirates are 63-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 67-69 ATS.
Pirates vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 11-8, 3.88 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Alex Cobb 1-1, 4.50 ERA
Pirates vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -110 | +125 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -110 | -150 |
Pirates vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+22.90 Units / 164% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+11.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+10.75 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bo Naylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 20 games (+21.00 Units / 105% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+18.10 Units / 60% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games (+14.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 46 games (+11.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.45 Units / 32% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 96 games (+14.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 44 away games (+3.50 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+2.60 Units / 14% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 62 games at home (+9.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 63 games at home (+8.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 74-61 against the Run Line (+9.11 Units / 5.2% ROI).
- 63-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.05 Units / -6.47% ROI
- 65-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.65 Units / -4.44% ROI
- 65-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.57 Units / -3.78% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 67-69 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 0.27% ROI).
- 77-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.22 Units / 4.72% ROI
- 66-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.65 Units / -2.43% ROI
- 63-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.55 Units / -6.41% ROI
Guardians vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jhonkensy Noel (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Guardians vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Guardians vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
| Alex Cobb (CLE) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .549 (113 Total Bases / 206 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of .904 (229 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .679 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .301 (62-for-206) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .284 (23-for-81) against Mitch Keller on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — 83rd Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (560/941) against Alex Cobb since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 183 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Alex Cobb has thrown his changeup 38% of the time (1,344/3,567) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 183 total CH; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (347/581) against Alex Cobb in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 183 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Alex Cobb has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (1,994/5,086) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 183 total CH; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Pirates are just 17-29 (.370) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates are just 8-26 (.235) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Pirates are just 52-6 (.897) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .946.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Guardians are 24-26 (.480) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Guardians are 64-2 (.970) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Guardians are just 2-51 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Guardians are 49-130 (.274) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .206.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,601 of 17,645 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 6.04 (114.2 IP) over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.71 (1474.2 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Pirates pitchers over the last 14 days — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .199 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Guardians have allowed 0.89 runs per game (121/136) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.30.
Guardians pitchers have won 48% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .229 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Guardians vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
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