- The Reds are -140 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller, – ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene, – ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-140) on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Pirates vs Reds Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Pirates are 7-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 11-9 ATS.
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -175 | O 8 -105 | +115 |
| Reds | -1.5 +145 | U 8 -115 | -140 |
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- player high – away
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- player high – home
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -155 |
| Hunter Greene | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -160 |
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 36 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.30 Units / 54% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 11-13 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -15.89% ROI).
- 7-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -29.48% ROI
- 16-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.25 Units / 34.84% ROI
- 6-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -44.4% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 11-9 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 8.07% ROI).
- 9-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -1.38% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -3 Units / -13.76% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 4.49% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .404 (267 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .401 (195-for-486) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .383 (543 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .303 — second Percentile.
Mitch Keller allowed an OBP of .406 (160 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .296 — second Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene threw 482 fastballs at 100+ MPH last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted .457 (21-for-46) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene had averaged 98.9 MPH on fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has at least 6 strikeouts in each of his last eight games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 27-53 (.338) on the road last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Pirates are just 52-8 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Pirates are just 42-11 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 60-80 (.429) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Reds are just 24-83 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Reds are just 44-9 (.830) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Reds are just 46-7 (.868) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Pirates batted just .142 with two-strikes last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters had an OPS of just .635 (2,999 PA’s) on the road last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .695.
Reds hitters had an OPS of just .662 (4,380 PA’s) against RHP last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 41% at home last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,190 of 12,367 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,229 of 12,419 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,442 of 14,544 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D10
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
- Luke Weaver (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D15
- JarlÃn GarcÃa (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Robert Stephenson (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D15
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