Pirates vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 30, 2023, 3:31 PM
  • The Reds are -140 favorites vs the Pirates
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller, ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene, ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Pittsburgh Pirates (+115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-140) on Thursday, March 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Pirates vs Reds Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

This season, the Pirates are 7-15 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 11-9 ATS.

Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Pirates+1.5 -175O 8 -105+115
Reds -1.5 +145U 8 -115-140

Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Pirates and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Pirates vs Reds and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

  • player high – away 

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • player  high – home

Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
TJ Friedl 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Jonathan India 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
TJ Friedl 0.5 -210 0.5 +145
Jonathan India 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
Oneil Cruz 0.5 -155 0.5 +110

Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
TJ Friedl 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jonathan India 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +210 0.5 -350

Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mitch Keller 5.5 +110 5.5 -155
Hunter Greene 7.5 +110 7.5 -160
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 98 games (+12.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 36 games (+6.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 36 games (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.30 Units / 54% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 11-13 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -15.89% ROI).

  • 7-15 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.65 Units / -29.48% ROI
  • 16-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.25 Units / 34.84% ROI
  • 6-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.7 Units / -44.4% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 11-9 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 8.07% ROI).

  • 9-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -1.38% ROI
  • 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -3 Units / -13.76% ROI
  • 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 4.49% ROI

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .404 (267 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .297 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .401 (195-for-486) against Mitch Keller in non-two strike counts since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .332 — 0 Percentile.

Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .383 (543 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .303 — second Percentile.

Mitch Keller allowed an OBP of .406 (160 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .296 — second Percentile.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hunter Greene threw 482 fastballs at 100+ MPH last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Opponents batted .457 (21-for-46) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 0 Percentile.

Hunter Greene had averaged 98.9 MPH on fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has at least 6 strikeouts in each of his last eight games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Pirates are just 96-26 (.787) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 27-53 (.338) on the road last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Pirates are just 52-8 (.867) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Pirates are just 42-11 (.792) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Reds are just 60-80 (.429) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Reds are just 24-83 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Reds are just 44-9 (.830) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Reds are just 46-7 (.868) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .291 (3,601 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Pirates batted just .142 with two-strikes last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Reds hitters had an OPS of just .635 (2,999 PA’s) on the road last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .695.

Reds hitters had an OPS of just .662 (4,380 PA’s) against RHP last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 41% at home last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,190 of 12,367 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,439 of 14,594 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 242 of 2,817 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,229 of 12,419 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,442 of 14,544 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
  • Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D10
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
  • Luke Weaver (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D15
  • Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
  • Robert Stephenson (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.