- The Pirates are +105 favorites vs the Reds
- Pirates vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Pirates / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-125) on Friday, September 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Pirates are 72-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 86-68 ATS.
Pirates vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 11-10, 3.91 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Martinez 9-6, 3.37 ERA
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +160 | O 9 -115 | +105 |
| Reds | +1.5 -210 | U 9 -105 | -125 |
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Friday‘s MLB game with 52.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Joey Bart has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 30 games (+17.50 Units / 58% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Walks Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+12.15 Units / 135% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+8.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+8.40 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 38 games (+25.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+13.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Walks Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+12.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+10.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 61% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 63 of their last 114 games (+8.92 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 68 away games (+7.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 76 games (+7.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+0.98 Units / 4% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 63 games at home (+16.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 78 of their last 136 games (+12.85 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games at home (+7.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+6.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 63 games (+6.55 Units / 9% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 81-72 against the Run Line (+3.83 Units / 1.94% ROI).
- 72-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.77 Units / -6.04% ROI
- 73-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.85 Units / -5.79% ROI
- 75-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.22 Units / -2.53% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 86-68 against the Run Line (+9 Units / 4.39% ROI).
- 74-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.75 Units / -3.18% ROI
- 72-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -5.99% ROI
- 74-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.3 Units / -3.14% ROI
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Joey Bart (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
| Nick Martinez (CIN) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has allowed an OPS of .915 (256 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .670 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .558 (129 Total Bases / 231 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — first Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of .842 (85 Total Bases / 101 ABs) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .588 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .307 (71-for-231) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — first Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Martinez has a first-pitch strike rate of 83% (38/46) in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 35% of Nick Martinez’s breaking pitches (342/971) since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 25% (44/178) against Nick Martinez vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Martinez has located his fastball inside 49% of the time (682/1,390) since last season — 2nd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 35% — 98th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 6-43 (.122) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Pirates are just 18-30 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 129-10 (.928) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Pirates are just 111-25 (.816) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 447 strikeouts in 1,328 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 61 extra-base hits out of 222 total hits (just 28%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Pirates are batting just .236 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .489 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .151 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Reds are batting just .226 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Reds have an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
The Reds are batting just .117 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Pirates pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,662 of 18,328 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 3,241 times since last season — 5th most in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Pirates pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .294 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 369 of 4,232 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
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