- The Rays are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Rays vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Rays / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | BSUN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Sunday, September 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Rays are 80-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 75-86 ATS.
Rays vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 8-7, 3.65 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Quinn Priester 2-6, 5.00 ERA
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -110 | -120 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -110 | +100 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 14 games (+21.85 Units / 156% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 41 games (+12.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.55 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ryan Pepiot has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 games at home (+22.20 Units / 89% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 22 games at home (+12.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.15 Units / 44% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 95 of their last 158 games (+27.36 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 85 games (+21.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 89 of their last 152 games (+20.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 90 games (+12.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 88 games (+6.30 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+3.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.95 Units / 13% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 84-77 against the Run Line (-2.95 Units / -1.34% ROI).
- 80-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -4.27% ROI
- 68-87 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.6 Units / -15.08% ROI
- 87-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.5 Units / 7.03% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 75-86 against the Run Line (-21.6 Units / -10.08% ROI).
- 80-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -10 Units / -5.08% ROI
- 79-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.1 Units / -1.19% ROI
- 74-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.4 Units / -7.05% ROI
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jonny DeLuca (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Pepiot (: Strikeouts | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| Quinn Priester (BOS) | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 32% (155/483) against Ryan Pepiot on fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .202 (151-for-746) against Ryan Pepiot since the 2022 season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 97th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot walked 4 of 22 batters (18%) in his last start — 4th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot has a first-pitch strike rate of 82% (18/22) over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd highest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Rays are 12-126 (.087) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Rays are 44-27 (.620) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Rays are 64-39 (.621) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 20-190 (.095) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .134.
The Red Sox are just 37-38 (.493) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Red Sox are just 5-205 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are just 3-139 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have an OPS of just .669 (5,969 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 504 strikeouts in 1,805 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have 1,242 strikeouts in 4,930 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .166 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Red Sox are batting .268 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 21 of 412 batters (5%) over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays pitchers have walked 284 of 4,323 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 202 of 2,882 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
- Tampa Bay Rays – No Injuries Reported
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