- The Red Sox are -115 favorites vs the Mets
- Red Sox vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Mets TV Channel: SNY | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (-115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-105) on Wednesday, September 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Red Sox are 70-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 70-69 ATS.
Red Sox vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 8-9, 3.12 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Tylor Megill 3-5, 4.85 ERA
Red Sox vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +150 | O 8 -110 | -115 |
| Mets | +1.5 -185 | U 8 -110 | -105 |
Red Sox vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 42 games (+30.80 Units / 73% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 22 away games (+18.25 Units / 47% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.40 Units / 73% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 43 games (+22.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 46 games (+20.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+13.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+12.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+12.45 Units / 104% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 away games (+13.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 67 away games (+12.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 67 away games (+9.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 139 games (+2.60 Units / 2% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 80 games (+16.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 50 of their last 91 games (+14.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+13.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 32 games at home (+13.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 81 games (+11.15 Units / 11% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 63-76 against the Run Line (-22.55 Units / -12.22% ROI).
- 70-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -6 Units / -3.56% ROI
- 71-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.25 Units / 2.79% ROI
- 61-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.45 Units / -10.85% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 70-69 against the Run Line (-2.4 Units / -1.35% ROI).
- 75-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 1.93% ROI
- 68-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.95 Units / -2.59% ROI
- 65-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.85 Units / -5.94% ROI
Mets vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Mets vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mets vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tylor Megill (NYM) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 40% of the time (462/1,151) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total SL; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has thrown his slider 47% of the time (463/978) with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total SL; League Avg: 25% — 96th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has thrown low pitches 63% of the time (615/978) with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has thrown off-speed pitches 60% of the time (309/511) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total NonFB; League Avg: 35% — 95th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .401 (192 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .332 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 25% (122/492) against Tylor Megill with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 10th Percentile.
Tylor Megill has a strike rate of just 59% (442/745) with runners in scoring position since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.
Tylor Megill has allowed an OBP of .379 (235 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: .330 — 14th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Red Sox are just 30-126 (.192) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Red Sox are just 35-37 (.486) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
The Red Sox are 39-31 (.557) on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Red Sox are just 55-49 (.529) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .588.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mets are 6-53 (.102) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Mets are 128-29 (.815) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Mets are 12-6 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 30-22 (.577) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are just 9-22 (.290) against the run line (-44.8% ROI) after a home win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Red Sox have a winning percentage of just 45% at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Red Sox are just 31-48 (.383) against the run line (-25.9% ROI) after a home loss since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Red Sox have scored in at least three different innings in 55% of their games this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Mets won only 40% of their road games in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Mets scored first in just 43% of their road games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Mets won just 61% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 71%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won just 26% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 39% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Red Sox have won 34% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers won only 18% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mets pitchers won only 21% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Mets pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
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