- The Rays are -175 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Whitlock
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane McClanahan
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Boston Red Sox (+145) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-175) on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Red Sox vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 5-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 9-1 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -115 | +145 |
| Rays | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 -105 | -175 |
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
- Reese McGuire has hit the Singles Under in 3 of his last 4 away games (+1.60 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Over in his last 4 games at home (+6.05 Units / 86% ROI)
- David Peralta has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- Francisco Mejia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 90% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane McClanahan | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Garrett Whitlock | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in their last 4 games (+4.65 Units / 103% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 103% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+2.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 25% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in their last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.15 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 10 games (+7.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 40% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 5-5 against the Run Line (+1.05 Units / 10% ROI).
- 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.75 Units / -12.68% ROI
- 6-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
- 4-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.75 Units / -24.77% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rays have gone 9-1 against the Run Line (+8.15 Units / 66.53% ROI).
- 10-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +10 Units / 44.35% ROI
- 6-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.6 Units / 23.42% ROI
- 3-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -33.03% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Whitlock walked 4 of 130 left-handed batters (3%) in 2022 — 4th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock allowed an OBP of just .215 (130 PA’s) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — 6th best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .306 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .135 (13-for-96) against Garrett Whitlock in close and late situations since last season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — 97th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has walked 4 of 130 left-handed batters (3%) since last season — best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters batted just .192 (97-for-504) against Shane McClanahan in 2022 — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 91st Percentile.
Shane McClanahan allowed an OBP of just .246 (639 PA’s) in 2022 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 34% (418/1,220) against Shane McClanahan in 2022 — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Shane McClanahan allowed an OPS of just .562 (641 PA’s) in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .664 — 95th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are 7-133 (.050) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Red Sox are just 9-12 (.429) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 27-50 (.351) when underdogs since the 2022 season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
The Red Sox are just 5-69 (.068) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 11-105 (.095) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Rays are 41-52 (.441) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Rays are 136-21 (.866) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2021 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Rays are 74-41 (.643) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2021 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have just 43 strikeouts in 256 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have an OPS of .930 (382 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Rays hitters are slugging 1.129 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .549.
Rays hitters are slugging .564 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Rays hitters are slugging .420 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox have won 46% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 43% when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Red Sox have allowed 2.50 runs per game (10/4) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.74.
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 4.59 (735.0 IP) at home in 2022 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 842 of 12,274 batters (7%) since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents are hitting just .184 against Rays pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays pitchers have walked 406 of 6,276 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 175 of 2,995 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jose Siri (Rays): Hamstring, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Shawn Armstrong (Rays): Neck, D15
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Taylor Walls (Rays): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Adam Duvall (Red Sox): Wrist, D10
- Brayan Bello (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Hamstring, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Oblique, D15
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