- Red Sox / Rays TV Channel: NESN | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Estadio Quisqueya Juan Marichal to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-145) on Saturday, March 9, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 5:05pm EST in .
This season, the Red Sox are 4-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 4-6 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +120 |
| Rays | -145 |
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Saturday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.10 Units / 74% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.90 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rene Pinto has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games (+3.95 Units / 198% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+3.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- Curtis Mead has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 80 games at home (+18.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 94 of their last 164 games (+14.09 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+13.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 47 of their last 82 games at home (+8.36 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 99 of their last 164 games (+8.05 Units / 3% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Red Sox are 7-4 against the Run Line (+2.9 Units / 22.89% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -15.42% ROI
- 2-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.73 Units / -64.79% ROI
- 9-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 55.42% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Rays are 4-6 against the Run Line (-2.48 Units / -21.38% ROI).
- 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.18 Units / -17.48% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.58 Units / -5.26% ROI
- 5-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.65 Units / -5.9% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted just .164 (28-for-171) against Kutter Crawford’s fastball in the 2023 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .270 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .183 (47-for-257) against Kutter Crawford on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .256 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .130 (13-for-100) against Kutter Crawford’s elevated fastballs in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 98th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford threw his slider 47% of the time (199/419) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 98th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yoniel Curet is making his MLB debut today.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox were just 17-25 (.405) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox were 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Red Sox were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are just 11-26 (.297) after a win as underdogs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Rays were 17-6 (.739) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays were 7-54 (.115) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Rays were 71-13 (.845) when they scored 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Red Sox hitters slugged .505 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .312 with runners on base in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Rays hitters had a groundball batting average of .284 in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays hitters slugged .445 in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Red Sox have won 43% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 208 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers walked 439 of 5,994 batters (7%) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, Out
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
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