- The Reds are -120 favorites vs the Cubs
- Reds vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Reds / Cubs TV Channel: MARQ | BSOH
The Cincinnati Reds (-115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-105) on Sunday, September 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Reds are 76-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 78-83 ATS.
Reds vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Hunter Greene 9-5, 2.84 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Caleb Kilian 0-1, 7.95 ERA
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +150 | O 7 -105 | -115 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -185 | U 7 -115 | -105 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 13 away games (+17.75 Units / 137% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+16.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 18 away games (+14.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+13.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.15 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+20.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- Christian Bethancour has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 games (+20.00 Units / 118% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 42 games (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 33 games (+10.75 Units / 26% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+16.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 81 of their last 143 games (+10.40 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 76 of their last 145 games (+8.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 55 away games (+4.45 Units / 8% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 64 games at home (+17.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 74 games (+11.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 73 games at home (+11.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+7.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 64 games at home (+6.85 Units / 9% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 89-72 against the Run Line (+6.55 Units / 3.04% ROI).
- 76-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.95 Units / -4.75% ROI
- 73-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.05 Units / -9.01% ROI
- 80-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.45 Units / -0.26% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 78-83 against the Run Line (-17.5 Units / -8.15% ROI).
- 83-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.15 Units / 0.57% ROI
- 75-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -7.49% ROI
- 80-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.15 Units / -1.22% ROI
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Michael Busch (CHC) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -1400 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Amed Rosario (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ty France (CIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Caleb Kilian (CHC) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Hunter Greene (CIN) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .176 (44-for-250) against Hunter Greene this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .176 (23-for-131) against Hunter Greene when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .259 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 17% (26/150) against Hunter Greene with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has a strikeout rate of 36% (228 SO in 639 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Caleb Kilian allowed a slugging percentage of .696 (16 Total Bases / 23 ABs) in his last appearance — 12th highest among among 249 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .375 — fourth Percentile.
Caleb Kilian allowed an OPS of 1.140 (28 PA’s) in his last appearance — 12th highest among among 249 qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .687 — fourth Percentile.
Caleb Kilian allowed an OPS of 1.159 (16 PA’s) against right-handed batters in his last appearance — 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .684 — ninth Percentile.
Caleb Kilian has a strikeout rate of just 11% (3 SO in 28 PAs) over the last 14 days — 8th lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 34-37 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 7-17 (.292) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 13-26 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 21-32 (.396) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are 32-10 (.762) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .643.
The Cubs are just 64-12 (.842) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Cubs are 13-8 (.619) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 55-49 (.529) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .150 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Reds are batting just .116 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .150.
Reds hitters are slugging just .164 over the past seven days (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
The Reds are batting just .225 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting .284 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Cubs are batting .263 against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Cubs hitters have drawn 98 walks in 1,490 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Cubs are batting just .228 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Reds pitchers this month (24 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% against Reds pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.09 (723.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Cubs pitchers have walked 125 of 1,427 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Cubs have allowed 3.41 runs per game (273/80) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 79 double plays in 1,116 opportunities (7%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Chicago Cubs – No Injuries Reported
- Cincinnati Reds – No Injuries Reported
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